Recaps · FOMC · 19 Mar 2025, 18:00 UK
Quieter balance sheet, louder Bitcoin
The rate decision was a hold, as expected. The two pieces of news were a much slower reduction of the Fed's bond holdings and Powell's view that the inflation effect of tariffs was likely to be transitory. Bitcoin's move came during the press conference, not on the statement.
- Decision
- Wednesday 19 March 2025, 18:00 UK
- Rate
- Held at 4.25% to 4.50%
- Balance sheet
- Treasury runoff cap cut from $25bn to $5bn a month from April (Fed)
- Projections
- Two quarter-point cuts in 2025 (Reuters)
- Bitcoin at decision
- $84,135
The decision
The Fed left rates unchanged and said that from April it would let only $5 billion of Treasuries run off its balance sheet each month, down from $25 billion. The cap on mortgage securities stayed at $35 billion. The median projection still showed two cuts in 2025, though Reuters noted that several officials saw fewer. Powell said tariffs would likely delay progress on inflation, but that the effect was expected to be transitory (Reuters).
The US clocks had changed ten days earlier while the UK's had not, so the decision came at 18:00 UK rather than the usual 19:00.
The press conference move
- 1 18:30 UK: press conference starts
- 2 19:05 UK: high, about +2.2%
Bitcoin was -0.03% after five minutes and +0.21% at the start of the press conference. The climb came during Powell's answers: about 2.2% up at 19:05 UK and +1.81% at the hour. That ranks #12 of 80 Fed decisions at 4.2 times a normal hour. The Nasdaq-100 ETF was +1.1% at the hour.
| Market | 5m | 30m | 1h | 4h | 24h | × normal hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solana | +0.08% | −0.12% | +2.67% | +2.96% | −1.78% | 4.4× |
| Bitcoin | −0.03% | +0.21% | +1.81% | +1.85% | −0.11% | 4.2× |
| Cardano | +0.02% | +0.20% | +1.81% | +1.49% | −0.91% | 3.4× |
| Ethereum | +0.04% | −0.32% | +1.15% | +0.77% | −2.83% | 2.1× |
Change from the 18:00 UK decision, sorted by the first hour.
Compared with the decisions around it
The two previous meetings had very different outcomes. In December 2024, when Powell warned about inflation and the projections showed fewer cuts, Bitcoin fell 1.9% in the hour and 3.4% by four hours. In January 2025 it moved 0.7%. This time it rose on a decision that, apart from the balance sheet, changed little. Slowing the runoff means the Fed takes less money out of markets each month, a small but direct easing. The lesson: on a "no change" day, check the statement for balance sheet changes, which get fewer headlines than the rate.
The gain did not last. Bitcoin was -0.11% after a day and Ether -2.8%.
Sources: release time and figures from the Federal Reserve's statement and target range (FRED DFEDTARU). Crypto: Bitstamp 5-minute candles; SPY/QQQ: IEX. No consensus forecasts are shown because they are proprietary; comparisons are with the previous release. “× normal hour” compares the first-hour move with the median move in matched quiet hours. How we measure it.