Replays · FOMC · 16 Sep 2026, 19:00 UK

A turn in the cycle that crypto shrugged off

Changes of direction are usually the Fed decisions that matter most. After two rounds of cuts and five meetings on hold, this was the first increase in rates since July 2023. In the hour after it, Bitcoin moved -0.17%, less than half the size of a normal hour. Only 18 of 80 Fed decisions in our data produced a smaller Bitcoin reaction.

Top of the Fed's target range at each change since the last hike in July 2023, plus the July 2026 hold. Source: FRED DFEDTARU.

The decision

The target range moved up from 3.50–3.75% to 3.75–4.00%. The Fed had cut six times between September 2024 and December 2025, taking the top of the range from 5.50% to 3.75%, and had then held for five straight meetings. A quarter-point increase is small in size, but as the first hike after a run of cuts it marked a clear change of direction.

A narrow evening

1 19:00 UK: the statement and the hike
2 19:05 UK: Bitcoin's high for the evening, about 1% up
3 19:35 UK: the low, about 1% down

Bitcoin, five-minute candles, 30 minutes before to 4 hours after the decision. % from the 19:00 UK price of $75,689. Source: Bitstamp.

The whole four-hour window fits inside a band of about 2%. Bitcoin rose roughly 1% in the first five minutes, then fell to roughly 1% below the decision price by 19:35 UK, then spent the rest of the evening between those levels. The first hour ended -0.17%, 0.4 times a normal hour, which puts this decision #62 of 80.

US stocks reacted more than crypto. The S&P 500 ETF fell 0.84% in the hour after the statement and the Nasdaq-100 ETF 0.81%. Coins that usually react more than Bitcoin did a little more here too: XRP rose 1.3% in the first hour and Solana 0.9%, both small moves by their own standards.

A quiet first hour after a turning point is not unusual in our records. The first cut of the previous cycle, in September 2024, also produced a modest first hour and a much larger move the next day. Turning points are often well telegraphed before the meeting, which leaves less to react to when the statement is published.

A week that told a different story

Change over the week after the 19:00 UK decision, % from the decision price.

Whatever the hike meant, crypto rose over the following days. Bitcoin was +1.2% after 24 hours and +11.4% after a week, and most other coins did better: Cardano was up 24% and XRP 19%. Our data can't say how much of that came from the Fed and how much from everything else that happened in that week. What it does show is that the decision hour gave no hint of it.

All FOMC decisions in our data by Bitcoin's first-hour move against a normal hour. This one sits towards the quiet end.

Sources: release time and figures from the Federal Reserve's statement and target range (FRED DFEDTARU). Crypto: Bitstamp 5-minute candles; SPY/QQQ: IEX. No consensus forecasts are shown because they are proprietary; comparisons are with the previous release. “× normal hour” compares the first-hour move with the median move in matched quiet hours. How we measure it.