FOMC history
Every Fed decision since 2017: what the Fed did to the target range, and how hard Bitcoin moved in the hour after the statement. The press conference starts 30 minutes in, so a lot of the action lands in that hour.
Rows in bold moved BTC at least 3× a normal hour. FOMC averages and charts →
2026
| Date | Decision | BTC first hour1h | × normal hour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep | Hike 25bp · to 3.75–4.00% | −0.17% | 0.4× | Recap in progress |
| 29 Jul | Hold · to 3.50–3.75% | +0.37% | 0.9× | |
| 17 Jun | Hold · to 3.50–3.75% | −0.89% | 2.1× | |
| 29 Apr | Hold · to 3.50–3.75% | −0.87% | 2.0× | |
| 18 Mar | Hold · to 3.50–3.75% | −0.71% | 1.6× | |
| 28 Jan | Hold · to 3.50–3.75% | −0.16% | 0.4× |
2025
| Date | Decision | BTC first hour1h | × normal hour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Dec | Cut 25bp · to 3.50–3.75% | +0.50% | 1.1× | |
| 29 Oct | Cut 25bp · to 3.75–4.00% | −0.94% | 2.2× | |
| 17 Sep | Cut 25bp · to 4.00–4.25% | −0.38% | 0.9× | |
| 30 Jul | Hold · to 4.25–4.50% | −1.10% | 2.5× | |
| 18 Jun | Hold · to 4.25–4.50% | −0.75% | 1.7× | |
| 7 May | Hold · to 4.25–4.50% | +0.28% | 0.6× | |
| 19 Mar | Hold · to 4.25–4.50% | +1.81% | 4.2× | Recap in progress |
| 29 Jan | Hold · to 4.25–4.50% | +0.72% | 1.6× |
2024
| Date | Decision | BTC first hour1h | × normal hour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Dec | Cut 25bp · to 4.25–4.50% | −1.88% | 4.2× | Recap in progress |
| 7 Nov | Cut 25bp · to 4.50–4.75% | −0.06% | 0.1× | |
| 18 Sep | Cut 50bp · to 4.75–5.00% | +1.00% | 2.3× | Recap → |
| 31 Jul | Hold · to 5.25–5.50% | −0.22% | 0.5× | |
| 12 Jun | Hold · to 5.25–5.50% | −1.39% | 3.2× | Recap in progress |
| 1 May | Hold · to 5.25–5.50% | +2.65% | 6.1× | Recap in progress |
| 20 Mar | Hold · to 5.25–5.50% | +2.06% | 4.8× | Recap in progress |
| 31 Jan | Hold · to 5.25–5.50% | −0.35% | 0.8× |
2023
| Date | Decision | BTC first hour1h | × normal hour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Dec | Hold · to 5.25–5.50% | +1.45% | 3.3× | Recap in progress |
| 1 Nov | Hold · to 5.25–5.50% | +0.25% | 0.6× | |
| 20 Sep | Hold · to 5.25–5.50% | −0.11% | 0.2× | |
| 26 Jul | Hike 25bp · to 5.25–5.50% | +0.42% | 1.0× | |
| 14 Jun | Hold · to 5.00–5.25% | −0.40% | 0.9× | |
| 3 May | Hike 25bp · to 5.00–5.25% | −0.42% | 1.0× | |
| 22 Mar | Hike 25bp · to 4.75–5.00% | −1.77% | 4.1× | Recap in progress |
| 1 Feb | Hike 25bp · to 4.50–4.75% | +1.40% | 3.2× | Recap in progress |
2022
| Date | Decision | BTC first hour1h | × normal hour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Dec | Hike 50bp · to 4.25–4.50% | −2.35% | 5.3× | Recap in progress |
| 2 Nov | Hike 75bp · to 3.75–4.00% | +0.12% | 0.3× | Recap in progress |
| 21 Sep | Hike 75bp · to 3.00–3.25% | −0.94% | 2.2× | Recap in progress |
| 27 Jul | Hike 75bp · to 2.25–2.50% | +4.29% | 10.0× | Recap in progress |
| 15 Jun | Hike 75bp · to 1.50–1.75% | +2.04% | 4.7× | Recap → |
| 4 May | Hike 50bp · to 0.75–1.00% | +1.49% | 3.4× | Recap in progress |
| 16 Mar | Hike 25bp · to 0.25–0.50% | −1.17% | 2.7× | Recap in progress |
| 26 Jan | Hold · to 0.00–0.25% | −1.05% | 2.4× |
2021
| Date | Decision | BTC first hour1h | × normal hour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Dec | Hold · to 0.00–0.25% | +1.76% | 3.9× | Recap in progress |
| 3 Nov | Hold · to 0.00–0.25% | +1.08% | 2.5× | |
| 22 Sep | Hold · to 0.00–0.25% | +0.06% | 0.1× | |
| 28 Jul | Hold · to 0.00–0.25% | +4.00% | 9.3× | Recap in progress |
| 16 Jun | Hold · to 0.00–0.25% | −1.14% | 2.7× | |
| 28 Apr | Hold · to 0.00–0.25% | +0.21% | 0.5× | |
| 17 Mar | Hold · to 0.00–0.25% | +3.70% | 8.6× | Recap in progress |
| 27 Jan | Hold · to 0.00–0.25% | +3.48% | 7.8× | Recap in progress |
2020
| Date | Decision | BTC first hour1h | × normal hour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Dec | Hold · to 0.00–0.25% | +0.76% | 1.7× | |
| 5 Nov | Hold · to 0.00–0.25% | +1.31% | 2.9× | Recap in progress |
| 16 Sep | Hold · to 0.00–0.25% | −0.25% | 0.6× | |
| 29 Jul | Hold · to 0.00–0.25% | +0.33% | 0.8× | |
| 10 Jun | Hold · to 0.00–0.25% | +0.63% | 1.5× | |
| 29 Apr | Hold · to 0.00–0.25% | −0.92% | 2.1× | |
| 23 Mar | Hold · to 0.00–0.25% | +8.06% | 17.3× | Recap in progress |
| 15 Mar | Cut 100bp · to 0.00–0.25% | +14.71% | 33.0× | Recap in progress |
| 3 Mar | Cut 50bp · to 1.00–1.25% | +0.06% | 0.1× | Recap in progress |
| 29 Jan | Hold · to 1.50–1.75% | +0.20% | 0.5× |
2019
| Date | Decision | BTC first hour1h | × normal hour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Dec | Hold · to 1.50–1.75% | +0.13% | 0.3× | |
| 30 Oct | Cut 25bp · to 1.50–1.75% | +0.51% | 1.2× | |
| 18 Sep | Cut 25bp · to 1.75–2.00% | −0.06% | 0.1× | |
| 31 Jul | Cut 25bp · to 2.00–2.25% | −0.48% | 1.1× | Recap in progress |
| 19 Jun | Hold · to 2.25–2.50% | −0.29% | 0.7× | |
| 1 May | Hold · to 2.25–2.50% | −0.73% | 1.7× | |
| 20 Mar | Hold · to 2.25–2.50% | +0.22% | 0.5× | |
| 30 Jan | Hold · to 2.25–2.50% | −0.17% | 0.4× |
2018
| Date | Decision | BTC first hour1h | × normal hour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Dec | Hike 25bp · to 2.25–2.50% | −0.66% | 1.5× | |
| 8 Nov | Hold · to 2.00–2.25% | −0.03% | 0.1× | |
| 26 Sep | Hike 25bp · to 2.00–2.25% | −0.21% | 0.5× | |
| 1 Aug | Hold · to 1.75–2.00% | −0.03% | 0.1× | |
| 13 Jun | Hike 25bp · to 1.75–2.00% | +0.10% | 0.2× | |
| 2 May | Hold · to 1.50–1.75% | −0.06% | 0.1× | |
| 21 Mar | Hike 25bp · to 1.50–1.75% | +0.43% | 1.0× | |
| 31 Jan | Hold · to 1.25–1.50% | +0.24% | 0.5× |
2017
| Date | Decision | BTC first hour1h | × normal hour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Dec | Hike 25bp · to 1.25–1.50% | +1.70% | 3.8× | Recap in progress |
| 1 Nov | Hold · to 1.00–1.25% | −0.30% | 0.7× | |
| 20 Sep | Hold · to 1.00–1.25% | +0.02% | 0.0× | |
| 26 Jul | Hold · to 1.00–1.25% | −0.08% | 0.2× | |
| 14 Jun | Hike 25bp · to 1.00–1.25% | +0.24% | 0.5× | |
| 3 May | Hold · to 0.75–1.00% | +0.14% | 0.3× | |
| 15 Mar | Hike 25bp · to 0.75–1.00% | −0.13% | 0.3× | |
| 1 Feb | Hold · to 0.50–0.75% | +0.10% | 0.2× |