How Bitcoin reacts to macro news
Bitcoin has data for 1,395 scheduled macro releases across 10 event types. The biggest average +1h move came after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) (1.02%), the smallest after Bank of England rate decision (0.46%). Relative to a normal hour, US CPI stands out: the first hour is 2.1× a typical hour's move.
Next release that moves BTC: FOMC rate decision,
US CPI1.02%FOMC0.85%US NFP0.71%US PCE0.56%US retail sales0.54%Jobless claims0.54%US PPI0.53%US GDP0.52%UK CPI0.51%BoE rate decision0.46%
0.0%0.2%0.5%0.8%1.0%
Average absolute move, +1h
Every event, ranked
Average absolute move after scheduled releases, % of releases where BTC was higher at +1h, the first-hour move vs a normal hour (crypto only), and the number of releases. Click a column to sort; click an event for every release.
| Event | +5m | +1h | +4h | +24h | % up +1h | vs normal hour | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 0.57% | 1.02% | 1.65% | 3.08% | 55% | 2.1× | 117 |
| FOMC rate decision | 0.53% | 0.85% | 1.58% | 3.30% | 51% | 2.0× | 77 |
| US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) | 0.43% | 0.71% | 1.20% | 1.98% | 58% | 1.4× | 117 |
| US PCE inflation (Personal Income and Outlays) | 0.31% | 0.56% | 1.24% | 2.59% | 42% | 1.1× | 114 |
| US retail sales | 0.20% | 0.54% | 1.31% | 2.28% | 53% | 1.1× | 115 |
| US initial jobless claims | 0.23% | 0.54% | 1.30% | 2.65% | 49% | 1.1× | 504 |
| US Producer Price Index (PPI) | 0.25% | 0.53% | 1.20% | 2.42% | 62% | 1.1× | 117 |
| US GDP (advance estimate) | 0.20% | 0.52% | 1.01% | 2.20% | 49% | 1.1× | 39 |
| UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 0.15% | 0.51% | 0.90% | 2.53% | 56% | 1.3× | 117 |
| Bank of England rate decision | 0.15% | 0.46% | 1.17% | 2.86% | 46% | 1.0× | 78 |
Past releases, not a forecast. Averages hide big differences between individual releases; open an event to see them all.