Recaps · US payrolls (NFP) · 10 Mar 2017, 13:30 UK

Number one of 117, and not because of jobs

Rank Bitcoin's first hour after every US jobs report in our data, and this one comes first: #1 of 117, at 16 times a normal hour. It would be a mistake to read that as a reaction to the jobs figures. 10 March 2017 was also the deadline for the SEC to decide on the first proposed US Bitcoin ETF.

Every jobs report in our data, by Bitcoin's first-hour move as a multiple of a normal hour. March 2017 is marked, at the top.

The jobs report

US employers added 235,000 jobs in February, January was revised to 238,000, and unemployment edged down from 4.8% to 4.7%. Solid numbers, and they barely moved US stocks: the S&P 500 ETF was -0.15% after an hour.

The ETF decision

The Winklevoss twins had applied in 2013 to list a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. The SEC's decision was due on 10 March 2017, and many traders were betting on approval. Bitcoin had been extremely volatile in the days before, and our data shows it was still swinging in the hour before the jobs release.

1 12:30 UK: Bitcoin swinging ahead of the ETF decision
2 13:30 UK: the jobs report, and a 7.7% first candle
3 14:00 UK: about 11% above the 13:30 price, near $1,300

Bitcoin, five-minute candles from an hour before to four hours after. % from the 13:30 UK price of $1,170. Source: Bitstamp.

The first five-minute candle after 13:30 UK added 8.0%. Half an hour later Bitcoin was about 11% higher, near $1,300, and it ended the hour +8.6%. XRP, the only other coin in our data for this date, moved the other way and was -1.7% after an hour, which is another sign the Bitcoin move was about Bitcoin.

The evening

Later that day the SEC rejected the ETF, citing the lack of regulation in Bitcoin markets. CoinDesk's price index fell to as low as $1,022.68 at 21:00 UK, nearly 30% below the all-time high of $1,325.81 it had reached earlier in the session. By the next afternoon Bitcoin was only 1.6% above the 13:30 UK price, and a week later it was -1.7%.

This recap is a useful warning about rankings. Our tables measure the hour after each release, whatever caused the move. Most of the time, for a big move, the release is the main driver. Here, the jobs report just happened to be published on the day of a much bigger crypto story.

Sources: release time and figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (public domain), first-print values via ALFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Crypto: Bitstamp 5-minute candles; SPY/QQQ: IEX. No consensus forecasts are shown because they are proprietary; comparisons are with the previous release. “× normal hour” compares the first-hour move with the median move in matched quiet hours. How we measure it.