Recaps · US payrolls (NFP) · 9 Mar 2018, 13:30 UK
A big jobs number, a crypto story
This jobs report had a big headline number, and Bitcoin had one of its largest jobs-day hours in our data. But US stocks hardly moved, and Bitcoin's swings that afternoon went both ways. The more likely driver was crypto's own news that week.
- Release
- Friday 9 March 2018, 13:30 UK
- Payrolls
- +313,000 (forecast 200,000, CNBC)
- Unemployment
- 4.1%, unchanged
- Wages
- +2.6% y/y, slower than expected (Reuters)
- Bitcoin at release
- $8,909
The report
Employers added 313,000 jobs in February, the biggest gain since July 2016, Reuters reported. January was revised up to 239,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% and wage growth slowed to 2.6% a year. Strong hiring with softer wages was the friendliest mix for stocks, because it eased fears of faster Fed hikes.
Up, then well down
- 1 14:30 UK: about +2.4%
- 2 15:00 UK: high, about +3%
- 3 16:30 UK: low, about 3.5% down
Bitcoin dipped on the release candle, then climbed. It was +2.84% at 14:30 UK, #6 of 117 jobs reports in our data at 5.3 times a normal hour, and peaked about 3% up at 15:00 UK. Then it fell hard, to about 3.5% below the release price at 16:30 UK. It ended the four hours at -0.96%. Over the same four hours the S&P 500 ETF rose a steady +0.78%.
| Market | 5m | 1h | 4h | 24h | 1w | × normal hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | −0.69% | +4.08% | +1.87% | +4.07% | −10.24% | 5.2× |
| Litecoin | −0.60% | +3.40% | +3.48% | +6.94% | −3.53% | 4.4× |
| Bitcoin | −0.53% | +2.84% | −0.96% | +4.50% | −4.31% | 5.3× |
| Ethereum | +0.13% | +2.58% | +0.90% | +6.00% | −10.48% | 3.9× |
Change from the 13:30 UK release, sorted by the first hour.
Why the data was probably not the cause
Two days earlier, on 7 March, the SEC said online platforms trading digital assets that are securities must register as exchanges, and CNBC reported that Bitcoin fell below $10,000. In that kind of week, crypto prices swing on crypto headlines, and a jobs report that happens to fall in the middle gets the credit. Other jobs days that spring were calm by comparison. Bitcoin's first hour after the February report was 0.5 times normal, and after the April report 0.8 times.
The way to tell is to check whether stocks and bonds reacted too. Here the S&P 500 ETF moved +0.26% in the first hour, while Bitcoin's moves went both ways. A data-driven move usually shows up across markets in the same direction. Bitcoin was +4.5% a day later and -4.3% after a week. XRP and Litecoin led the first hour, at +4.1% and +3.4%.
Sources: release time and figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (public domain), first-print values via ALFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Crypto: Bitstamp 5-minute candles; SPY/QQQ: IEX. No consensus forecasts are shown because they are proprietary; comparisons are with the previous release. “× normal hour” compares the first-hour move with the median move in matched quiet hours. How we measure it.