Event recaps · US payrolls (NFP) history · 5 Mar 2021, 13:30 UK
Good news, bad yields
In early 2021, strong economic data meant higher bond yields, and higher yields were hurting tech stocks. This jobs report beat forecasts by a wide margin. The 10-year yield jumped, the Nasdaq fell hard, and then the whole market reversed. Bitcoin swung both ways too, but did not follow stocks tick for tick.
- Release
- Friday 5 March 2021, 13:30 UK
- Payrolls
- +379,000 vs 210,000 expected (BLS, Reuters)
- Unemployment
- 6.2%
- 10-year yield
- 2021 high of about 1.62%, then lower (CNBC)
- Bitcoin at release
- $48,111
The numbers
Employers added 379,000 jobs in February, far more than the 210,000 forecast (BLS, Reuters). The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 1.62%, its highest of 2021 at the time. Powell's comments on yields the day before had sent the Nasdaq sharply lower.
Swings in both directions
- 1 13:30 UK: first candle about 1.4% down
- 2 14:30 UK: high, about +1.4%
- 3 16:30 UK: low, about 2.5% down
Bitcoin fell 1.36% on the first candle, rallied to about 1.4% up at 14:30 UK, and was +0.89% at the hour, #29 of 117 jobs reports at 1.7 times a normal hour. It then fell to about 2.5% down at 16:30 UK and ended four hours at -0.50%.
- 1 15:30 UK: Nasdaq-100 ETF about 2.7% down
Stocks fell for two hours after the open. The S&P 500 ETF was -1.92% and the Nasdaq-100 ETF -2.74% two hours after the release. Then both recovered, and they were +0.11% and +0.09% at four hours. The Nasdaq closed 1.55% higher on the day (CNBC).
| Market | 5m | 1h | 2h | 4h | 24h | 1w | × normal hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | −1.36% | +0.89% | +0.34% | −0.50% | −1.94% | +14.84% | 1.7× |
| Ethereum | −1.50% | +0.93% | +0.16% | +0.06% | +1.56% | +15.61% | 1.4× |
| S&P 500 ETF (SPY) | −0.25% | −1.09% | −1.92% | +0.11% | – | – | – |
| Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) | −0.49% | −1.79% | −2.74% | +0.09% | – | – | – |
Change from the 13:30 UK release. The ETFs are measured from the 14:30 UK open.
What the comparison shows
This was a case where the data mattered through bond yields, not directly. The beat raised yields, rising yields hit tech, and when yields eased the selling stopped. Bitcoin's lowest point came at 16:30 UK, after stocks had already turned up, so the two markets were not moving in step. The other early-2021 reports were calmer for Bitcoin: it moved 0.5% in the first hour after February's report and less than 0.2% after April's. By the May report, a big miss, the focus had moved to inflation.
The bigger picture was a bull market. Bitcoin was -1.9% a day later but +14.8% after a week, and Ether +15.6%. A sharp intraday swing on a jobs day did not change the trend.
Sources: release time and figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (public domain), first-print values via ALFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Crypto: Bitstamp 5-minute candles; SPY/QQQ: IEX. No consensus forecasts are shown because they are proprietary; comparisons are with the previous release. “× normal hour” compares the first-hour move with the median move in matched quiet hours. How we measure it.