Recaps · US payrolls (NFP) · 1 Apr 2022, 13:30 UK
A miss that wasn't weak
The headline missed forecasts, but the rest of the report was strong. Unemployment hit a two-year low and February was revised up sharply. Treasury yields jumped and stocks dithered. Bitcoin went its own way and rose for most of the afternoon.
- Release
- Friday 1 April 2022, 13:30 UK
- Payrolls
- +431,000 vs 490,000 expected (CNBC)
- Unemployment
- 3.6%, a two-year low (Reuters)
- February
- Revised up to 750,000 from 678,000
- Bitcoin at release
- $44,886
The numbers
Hiring was a little below forecasts, but unemployment fell from 3.8% to 3.6% and wages rose 5.6% over the year (Reuters). Reuters wrote that the report opened the door to a 50 basis point hike in May. The LA Times reported that Treasury yields "soared", while the S&P 500 ended 0.3% higher after swinging between small gains and losses.
Bitcoin and stocks part ways
- 1 14:30 UK: Bitcoin about +1.5%
- 2 16:20 UK: Bitcoin's high, about +4.1%
Bitcoin was +0.21% after five minutes, +1.25% at the hour, #17 of 117 jobs reports at 2.7 times a normal hour, and about 4.1% up at 16:20 UK. The S&P 500 ETF was -0.81% and the Nasdaq-100 ETF -1.07% at four hours, before the late recovery that left the index slightly higher at the close.
| Market | 15m | 1h | 4h | 24h | 1w | × normal hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | +0.69% | +1.25% | +3.66% | +4.22% | −3.32% | 2.7× |
| Ethereum | +0.88% | +2.00% | +4.84% | +7.10% | −0.28% | 3.4× |
| Chainlink | +0.96% | +1.80% | +3.67% | +6.01% | −7.27% | 2.5× |
| Cardano | +1.37% | +0.68% | +3.74% | +5.55% | −4.53% | 1.2× |
| S&P 500 ETF (SPY) | −0.19% | −0.49% | −0.81% | – | – | – |
| Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) | −0.18% | −0.38% | −1.07% | – | – | – |
Change from the 13:30 UK release. The ETFs are measured from the 14:30 UK open.
Was it the report?
A split like this, with crypto up 4% and stocks down, suggests that something other than the report was driving Bitcoin. The direction of the data did not obviously favour crypto: a strong labour market meant faster hikes. Bitcoin was also 0.9% lower in the hour before the release, so some of the rise may have been a rebound.
The reports on either side are useful comparisons. In March 2022, after a beat, Bitcoin fell 0.5% in the first hour and 1.6% at four hours. In May, it was flat. And at the Fed's May decision, which delivered the 50 basis point hike this report pointed to, Bitcoin rose 1.5% in the first hour. The gain did not last: Bitcoin was -3.3% a week after this report. For traders, the lesson is that a four-hour move that stocks do not share rarely survives the week.
Sources: release time and figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (public domain), first-print values via ALFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Crypto: Bitstamp 5-minute candles; SPY/QQQ: IEX. No consensus forecasts are shown because they are proprietary; comparisons are with the previous release. “× normal hour” compares the first-hour move with the median move in matched quiet hours. How we measure it.