Recaps · US payrolls (NFP) · 2 Sep 2022, 13:30 UK
The softer report of the summer
In the summer of 2022, every strong jobs report meant more Fed hikes. This one was a little softer: unemployment rose, and hiring cooled from July's huge number. Crypto rose and kept most of the gain. Stocks rallied too, then sold off into the close.
- Release
- Friday 2 September 2022, 13:30 UK
- Payrolls
- +315,000 (AP)
- Unemployment
- 3.7%, up from 3.5%
- July
- Revised to 526,000
- Bitcoin at release
- $20,127
The numbers
The economy added 315,000 jobs in August, down from 526,000 in July. Unemployment rose to 3.7% from 3.5%. AP reported that stocks first rallied on hopes that a cooler labour market would ease pressure on the Fed, then fell as worries about aggressive hikes returned. The S&P 500 and Dow each lost 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.3%.
Crypto up, stocks down
- 1 13:35 UK: Bitcoin about +1.1%
- 2 15:40 UK: Bitcoin's high, about +1.6%
Bitcoin rose +0.43% in five minutes and was +1.22% at the hour, #18 of 117 jobs reports at 2.6 times a normal hour. Ether did more, +2.74% at the hour, 4.7 times its normal size. Bitcoin's high, about 1.6% up, came at 15:40 UK. By four hours the S&P 500 ETF was -1.71% and the Nasdaq-100 ETF -2.13%, while Bitcoin was still +0.64%.
| Market | 5m | 1h | 4h | 24h | 1w | × normal hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | +0.43% | +1.22% | +0.64% | −1.42% | +4.62% | 2.6× |
| Ethereum | +0.58% | +2.74% | +1.70% | −2.58% | +7.08% | 4.7× |
| Solana | 0.00% | +2.18% | +3.04% | −0.42% | +12.53% | 3.9× |
| Chainlink | +2.59% | +3.45% | +2.59% | −1.44% | +15.25% | 4.9× |
| S&P 500 ETF (SPY) | −0.47% | +0.02% | −1.71% | – | – | – |
| Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) | −0.68% | +0.01% | −2.13% | – | – | – |
Change from the 13:30 UK release. The ETFs are measured from the 14:30 UK open.
Three summer reports
The August report showed 528,000 jobs, and Bitcoin fell 1.7% in the first hour. The October report, with unemployment back down to 3.5%, sent it 2.0% lower. This report, the only one of the three where unemployment rose, was also the only one where Bitcoin rose. In 2022, the unemployment rate was as important as the headline for reading the reaction.
Ether had its own reason to be strong. The Merge, its switch from mining to staking, was due in mid-September, and Ether was +7.1% a week after this report. The gains faded overnight first: Bitcoin was -1.4% a day later, after the stock sell-off. The first hour was a fair read of the data; the day showed that crypto still could not ignore falling stocks for long.
Sources: release time and figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (public domain), first-print values via ALFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Crypto: Bitstamp 5-minute candles; SPY/QQQ: IEX. No consensus forecasts are shown because they are proprietary; comparisons are with the previous release. “× normal hour” compares the first-hour move with the median move in matched quiet hours. How we measure it.