Recaps · US payrolls (NFP) · 2 Feb 2024, 13:30 UK
A blowout that stocks shrugged off
The year's first jobs report was far hotter than expected and pushed rate cuts further away. Bitcoin and Solana dipped. But it was also the day Meta jumped 20% on earnings, and the S&P 500 closed at a record. Bitcoin followed stocks back up, and the next week was one of its strongest in months.
- Release
- Friday 2 February 2024, 13:30 UK
- Payrolls
- +353,000 vs 185,000 expected (CNBC)
- Unemployment
- 3.7%
- Same day
- Meta up about 20% on results (CNBC)
- Bitcoin at release
- $43,071
The numbers
The economy added 353,000 jobs in January, and wage growth beat forecasts too (CNBC). Reuters wrote that the report supported the Fed's reluctance to cut soon. Yields rose. Stocks rallied anyway: AP reported the Nasdaq up 1.7% and the S&P 500 up 1.1% to a record close, helped by Meta's tripled profit and first dividend.
A dip and a recovery
- 1 13:50 UK: Bitcoin's low, about 1.2% down
- 2 16:05 UK: Bitcoin's high, about +0.9%
Bitcoin was -0.56% after five minutes and reached its low, about 1.2% down, at 13:50 UK. It was -0.91% at the hour, #27 of 117 jobs reports at 1.7 times a normal hour. Solana fell further, -2.5% at the hour. Bitcoin turned positive by about 16:30 UK and was +0.34% at four hours, while the Nasdaq-100 ETF was +1.14%.
| Market | 5m | 1h | 4h | 24h | 1w | × normal hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | −0.56% | −0.91% | +0.34% | −0.06% | +10.00% | 1.7× |
| Ethereum | −0.69% | −1.08% | −0.44% | −0.37% | +8.78% | 1.6× |
| Solana | −1.08% | −2.48% | −1.17% | −2.76% | +3.93% | 3.5× |
| XRP | −0.57% | −0.52% | +0.47% | +3.68% | +4.15% | 0.7× |
| S&P 500 ETF (SPY) | −0.01% | +0.25% | +0.83% | – | – | – |
| Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) | +0.04% | +0.44% | +1.14% | – | – | – |
Change from the 13:30 UK release. The ETFs are measured from the 14:30 UK open.
The same fade as October
This was the second time in four months that a headline about twice the forecast produced only a short dip. On 6 October 2023, Bitcoin fell about 1.8% in 30 minutes, then rallied with stocks. Here the drop was smaller and the recovery took longer, but the shape was the same. In both cases stocks had a reason to rise beyond the data, wages then and Meta now, and Bitcoin followed them.
A month earlier, after the January 2024 report, Bitcoin was 1.1% lower at four hours, with no such support from stocks. The difference suggests that by early 2024, Bitcoin's reaction to a strong jobs report depended a lot on what stocks were doing that afternoon. Bitcoin was +10.0% a week after this report. The dip was a poor guide to what came next.
Sources: release time and figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (public domain), first-print values via ALFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Crypto: Bitstamp 5-minute candles; SPY/QQQ: IEX. No consensus forecasts are shown because they are proprietary; comparisons are with the previous release. “× normal hour” compares the first-hour move with the median move in matched quiet hours. How we measure it.