Recaps · US payrolls (NFP) · 7 Jun 2024, 13:30 UK
Too strong for a cut
A month earlier, a weak jobs report had sent Bitcoin up 3.5% in an hour. This one went the other way: far more jobs than expected, and fewer hopes of a rate cut. Bitcoin fell on the first candle, and that turned out to be the top of its early-June rally.
- Release
- Friday 7 June 2024, 13:30 UK
- Payrolls
- +272,000 vs about 180,000 expected (CoinDesk)
- Unemployment
- 4.0%, up from 3.9%
- Day before
- ECB cut rates to 3.75%
- Bitcoin at release
- $71,897
The numbers
The economy added 272,000 jobs in May, far above forecasts. Unemployment rose to 4.0%, its first reading at that level since early 2022, but the market focused on the headline. Reuters wrote that rate cut hopes "withered" and Treasury yields rose. The European Central Bank had cut rates the day before, so the contrast with the Fed was sharp.
A sharp first candle
- 1 13:35 UK: about 1.4% down
- 2 13:40 UK: low, about 1.8% down
Bitcoin was -1.39% after five minutes, reached its low about 1.8% down at 13:40 UK, and recovered to -0.76% at the hour. That ranks #30 of 117 jobs reports at 1.6 times a normal hour. The S&P 500 ETF was +0.54% at four hours.
| Market | 5m | 1h | 4h | 24h | 1w | × normal hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | −1.39% | −0.76% | −1.06% | −3.58% | −6.59% | 1.6× |
| Ethereum | −1.18% | −0.75% | −0.84% | −3.94% | −8.20% | 1.3× |
| Solana | −1.23% | −0.70% | −1.46% | −7.14% | −13.81% | 1.2× |
| Cardano | −1.66% | −0.64% | −1.58% | −10.31% | −12.94% | 1.2× |
| S&P 500 ETF (SPY) | −0.13% | +0.24% | +0.54% | – | – | – |
Change from the 13:30 UK release. The ETF is measured from the 14:30 UK open.
A mirror image of May
The May report showed 175,000 jobs, well below forecast, and Bitcoin rose 4.8% in four hours. One month later the surprise was in the other direction, and so was the move, though smaller at first. In both cases, Bitcoin traded the report as news about rate cuts, not about the economy.
The bigger move came later. Bitcoin was -3.6% a day after the release, Cardano -10%, and Bitcoin -6.6% after a week, including the Fed decision that cut its projection to one 2024 cut. The jobs report started a repricing that the Fed then confirmed. For traders, the first five minutes showed the direction; the week showed the size.
The next report, on 5 July, showed how quickly that changed. Bitcoin was 0.3% lower after an hour and then 1.7% up at four hours, as the market went back to pricing a September cut. Three jobs reports in a row produced three different reactions, which is a reminder that the same data can move prices very differently as the rate outlook shifts.
Sources: release time and figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (public domain), first-print values via ALFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Crypto: Bitstamp 5-minute candles; SPY/QQQ: IEX. No consensus forecasts are shown because they are proprietary; comparisons are with the previous release. “× normal hour” compares the first-hour move with the median move in matched quiet hours. How we measure it.