Replays · US payrolls (NFP) · 6 Sep 2024, 13:30 UK
Good for 50 minutes, then not
If you only looked at the first hour, this was a positive release for crypto: Bitcoin was 1.6% higher at 14:30 UK. Two hours later it was 3.7% lower. The jobs report was one that markets found hard to read, and the first verdict didn't last.
An awkward number
Payrolls rose 142,000 in August. That was more than July's first print of 114,000, but July was revised down to 89,000, and unemployment edged down from 4.3% to 4.2%. The Fed was going to cut rates at its next meeting. The question was by how much, and this report could be read either way.
Two halves
- 1 14:20 UK: Bitcoin's high, about +1.9%
- 2 14:30 UK: US stocks open and start to fall
- 3 16:15 UK: Bitcoin's low, about 3.7% down
Bitcoin rose 1.0% on the first candle and kept edging up until 14:20 UK, when it was about 1.9% above the $55,897 release price. Around the 14:30 UK open of US stocks, things turned. The Nasdaq 100 ETF fell steadily, and Bitcoin followed. By 16:15 UK it was near $53,810, about 3.7% below the release price, and it ended the four-hour window -3.3%. The Nasdaq 100 ETF was -2.3% by then.
| Market | 30m | 1h | 2h | 4h | × normal hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | +1.71% | +1.56% | −1.96% | −3.29% | 3.4× |
| Ethereum | +1.22% | +1.12% | −1.55% | −3.97% | 1.9× |
| Solana | +2.69% | +2.82% | −0.03% | −1.92% | 5.0× |
| Dogecoin | +1.53% | +1.37% | −1.51% | −3.54% | 2.8× |
| Chainlink | +1.92% | +1.82% | −2.12% | −2.63% | 2.6× |
| Cardano | +1.76% | +1.58% | −1.60% | −1.30% | 2.9× |
| XRP | +1.13% | +1.02% | −1.53% | −2.53% | 1.4× |
| Litecoin | +0.69% | +0.66% | −1.33% | −2.16% | 0.9× |
| S&P 500 ETF (SPY) | −0.38% | −0.95% | −1.52% | −1.67% | – |
| Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) | −1.12% | −1.51% | −2.23% | −2.31% | – |
Change from the 13:30 UK release. Every coin is positive at one hour and negative at two.
The table shows how sudden the change was. Every crypto market in it was up at one hour and down at two. Solana had the biggest first hour, +2.8%, and Ether the biggest four-hour loss, -4.0%.
What it means for the rankings
Our main measure is the first hour, and this report ranks #11 of 117 by Bitcoin's first-hour move (3.4 times a normal hour). That ranking captures the rally but not the reversal. It's a good reason to look at the four-hour window before deciding how a release "went".
The Fed cut rates by half a point on 18 September, twelve days later. By then the market had recovered: Bitcoin was +3.2% one week after this report.
Sources: release time and figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (public domain), first-print values via ALFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Crypto: Bitstamp 5-minute candles; SPY/QQQ: IEX. No consensus forecasts are shown because they are proprietary; comparisons are with the previous release. “× normal hour” compares the first-hour move with the median move in matched quiet hours. How we measure it.