Event recaps · US payrolls (NFP) history · 11 Feb 2026, 13:30 UK
A beat on top of a big revision
This January jobs report came out on a Wednesday, nearly a week late, after a partial government shutdown. It carried two messages at once: January hiring was stronger than expected, and the annual revision cut hundreds of thousands of jobs from 2025. Bitcoin rallied first, then reversed. Stocks fell.
- Release
- Wednesday 11 February 2026, 13:30 UK
- Payrolls
- +130,000 vs 55,000 expected (BLS, CNBC)
- Unemployment
- 4.3%, down from 4.4%
- Benchmark revision
- -898,000 (BLS)
- Bitcoin at release
- $66,969
The numbers
The report was delayed by the partial government shutdown that ended on 3 February. Employers added 130,000 jobs in January, more than double the forecast, and unemployment fell to 4.3%. December was revised to 48,000. The annual benchmark revision cut the level of employment by 898,000. Reuters reported that, after the revisions, 2025 job growth totalled just 181,000, against 584,000 first estimated, while January was the strongest month since December 2024.
Up 2.6%, then down 1.9%
- 1 14:10 UK: high, about +2.6%
- 2 15:10 UK: low, about 1.9% down
Bitcoin was +0.72% after five minutes and about 2.6% up at 14:10 UK. It was +1.53% at the hour, #15 of 117 jobs reports at 2.9 times a normal hour. Within another hour it had swung to about 1.9% down, and it was -0.54% at four hours. The S&P 500 ETF was -0.96% and the Nasdaq-100 ETF -1.36% after their first hour.
| Market | 5m | 1h | 2h | 4h | 24h | × normal hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | +0.72% | +1.53% | −1.22% | −0.54% | +1.14% | 2.9× |
| Ethereum | +0.80% | +2.03% | −1.37% | −0.86% | +1.64% | 3.1× |
| S&P 500 ETF (SPY) | −0.05% | −0.96% | −0.66% | −0.52% | – | – |
| Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) | −0.13% | −1.36% | −0.89% | −0.54% | – | – |
Change from the 13:30 UK release. The ETFs are measured from the 14:30 UK open.
What traders could learn
Bitcoin's rally peaked at 14:10 UK, before the stock market opened. When stocks opened lower, Bitcoin turned. A pre-open crypto move that reverses once equities start trading is worth watching for. The early move reflects the headline. The later one reflects how larger markets interpret the whole report, including revisions and what they imply for rates.
The comparison with nearby reports is telling. After the January 2026 report, Bitcoin was flat in the first hour. A month later, the February report showed payrolls falling by 92,000, and Bitcoin fell for four hours. Here the headline was strong, but the move did not last. Bitcoin ended the day +1.14% from the release.
Sources: release time and figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (public domain), first-print values via ALFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Crypto: Bitstamp 5-minute candles; SPY/QQQ: IEX. No consensus forecasts are shown because they are proprietary; comparisons are with the previous release. “× normal hour” compares the first-hour move with the median move in matched quiet hours. How we measure it.