Event recaps · US payrolls (NFP) history · 8 May 2026, 13:30 UK
Strong enough to hold
This report beat forecasts, but the bar was low and the Fed was expected to hold either way. Stocks rose. Bitcoin dipped about 1% and stayed in a narrow range.
- Release
- Friday 8 May 2026, 13:30 UK
- Payrolls
- +115,000 vs about 55,000 to 67,000 expected (BLS, Reuters, CNBC)
- Unemployment
- 4.3%
- March
- Revised to 185,000
- Bitcoin at release
- $80,315
The numbers
Employers added 115,000 jobs in April, about double most forecasts. Estimates varied: Reuters had 62,000, CNBC 55,000. Unemployment stayed at 4.3%, and March was revised to 185,000. Reuters reported that the war with Iran was adding to inflation pressure, and that the Fed was expected to keep rates on hold.
A small dip
- 1 14:45 UK: low, about 1% down
Bitcoin was -0.08% after five minutes and slipped to about 1% down at 14:45 UK. It was -0.89% at the hour, #24 of 117 jobs reports at 1.9 times a normal hour, and -0.47% at four hours. The Nasdaq-100 ETF went the other way, +1.47% at four hours.
| Market | 5m | 1h | 4h | 24h | 1w | × normal hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | −0.08% | −0.89% | −0.47% | +0.11% | +0.26% | 1.9× |
| Ethereum | −0.02% | −0.84% | −0.14% | +1.04% | −1.51% | 1.4× |
| Solana | −0.05% | −0.47% | +0.99% | +5.52% | +2.39% | 0.8× |
| S&P 500 ETF (SPY) | +0.05% | +0.25% | +0.38% | – | – | – |
| Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) | +0.29% | +0.79% | +1.47% | – | – | – |
Change from the 13:30 UK release. The ETFs are measured from the 14:30 UK open.
How it compares
The spring 2026 reports show a pattern. After the April report, Bitcoin fell 0.7% in the first hour; after this one, 0.9%; after June's, 0.2%, though it was 2.1% down at four hours. None of these were large moves, and none followed the size of the payroll surprise. With the Fed on hold and inflation driven by energy, the jobs number was less important than the CPI reports. Compare the June CPI report in July, when Bitcoin rose 1.6% in the first hour.
Ether moved almost exactly with Bitcoin in the first hour, -0.84% against -0.89%. In 2026 the two have tracked each other closely on jobs days: in March both fell, by 1.5% and 1.9%; in April, by 0.7% and 0.9%. That makes Ether a poor hedge for a Bitcoin position on these releases. When one moves, the other usually moves the same way.
This report also shows that stocks and Bitcoin do not need to move together on a jobs day. Tech stocks rose on a picture of steady growth, while Bitcoin edged lower. Over the next day, Bitcoin was +0.11% from the release and Solana +5.5%.
Sources: release time and figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (public domain), first-print values via ALFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Crypto: Bitstamp 5-minute candles; SPY/QQQ: IEX. No consensus forecasts are shown because they are proprietary; comparisons are with the previous release. “× normal hour” compares the first-hour move with the median move in matched quiet hours. How we measure it.