Recaps · US CPI · 15 Jan 2025, 13:30 UK
Core beats headline
The headline inflation rate rose, but the core rate eased, and markets cared about the core. Stocks had their best day since the election and Bitcoin climbed back towards $100,000. Five days before the presidential inauguration, the bigger moves in crypto came later in the week.
- Release
- Wednesday 15 January 2025, 13:30 UK
- Headline CPI
- +0.4% m/m, 2.9% y/y (as forecast)
- Core CPI
- +0.2% m/m, 3.2% y/y (forecast 3.3%)
- Stocks
- Best day since 6 November (Reuters)
- Bitcoin at release
- $97,250
The report
Headline prices rose 0.4% in December, pushed up by energy, and the annual rate rose to 2.9%, in line with forecasts. Core prices rose 0.2%, after four months of 0.3%, and the annual core rate fell to 3.2% against an expected 3.3% (CNBC, Reuters). The 10-year Treasury yield had its biggest one-day drop since August, Investopedia reported.
A steady climb
- 1 13:30 UK: release candle, about +1.3%
- 2 15:25 UK: high, about +2.6%
Bitcoin rose +1.26% on the release candle and kept going. It was +1.57% after an hour, #27 of 117 CPI releases at 2.9 times a normal hour, and reached about 2.6% up at 15:25 UK, close to $99,800. CNBC reported that it touched $100,715 later in the US afternoon. Stocks rallied too: Reuters reported the S&P 500 up 1.83% and the Nasdaq up 2.45% at the close.
| Market | 5m | 1h | 4h | 24h | 1w | × normal hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardano | +4.63% | +2.76% | +4.27% | +6.80% | −1.19% | 4.3× |
| Solana | +2.88% | +3.10% | +5.76% | +11.59% | +40.47% | 4.4× |
| Ethereum | +1.87% | +2.17% | +4.16% | +2.97% | +2.72% | 3.3× |
| Bitcoin | +1.26% | +1.57% | +1.92% | +1.59% | +7.84% | 2.9× |
Change from the 13:30 UK release, sorted by the first hour.
Which number to watch
When headline and core inflation point different ways, markets usually follow core, because energy prices swing month to month and the Fed looks through them. A trader watching only the headline would have expected a worse reaction. The month before, the November report was in line and Bitcoin moved 0.3% in its first hour. The month after, the January report was hot on both measures and Bitcoin fell.
Solana was the standout over the next week, +40%, while Bitcoin was +7.8%. That week included the run-up to the inauguration on 20 January and the launch of a Trump-branded memecoin on Solana, so the weekly move had little to do with inflation. On the day itself, Solana was +5.8% at four hours.
Sources: release time and figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (public domain), first-print values via ALFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Crypto: Bitstamp 5-minute candles; SPY/QQQ: IEX. No consensus forecasts are shown because they are proprietary; comparisons are with the previous release. “× normal hour” compares the first-hour move with the median move in matched quiet hours. How we measure it.