Event recaps · US CPI history · 14 Oct 2026, 13:30 UK
No relief from gasoline
The last inflation report before the US midterm elections was hotter than expected, both on the headline and on core prices. Bitcoin fell on the first candle and did not recover. Unlike many CPI days in our data, stocks fell too, and both kept sliding through the afternoon.
- Release
- Wednesday 14 October 2026, 13:30 UK
- CPI
- +0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y vs 3.6% expected (BLS, CNBC)
- Core CPI
- +0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y vs 0.2% and 2.5% expected
- Gasoline
- +9.1% in the month (BLS)
- Bitcoin at release
- $83,791
The numbers
Prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over the year, up from 3.4% in August (BLS). Gasoline rose 9.1% and accounted for over half of the monthly increase. CNBC linked energy costs to the war between the US and Iran that began in late February. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, also beat forecasts. Reuters wrote that the report put a rate rise later in October back on the radar.
A slide, not a spike
- 1 13:30 UK: first candle about 1.2% down
- 2 17:15 UK: low, about 2.7% down
Bitcoin was -1.17% after five minutes, -1.46% at the hour, #24 of 117 CPI reports at 3.1 times a normal hour, and -2.57% at four hours. Ether was -3.3% and Solana -3.5%. Bittensor's first hour was 14 times its normal size. The S&P 500 ETF was -0.86% and the Nasdaq-100 ETF -1.24% at four hours.
| Market | 5m | 1h | 2h | 4h | 24h | 1w | × normal hour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | −1.17% | −1.46% | −2.18% | −2.57% | −3.34% | −0.32% | 3.1× |
| Ethereum | −1.23% | −1.81% | −3.40% | −3.34% | −5.91% | −1.86% | 3.1× |
| Solana | −1.46% | −2.22% | −3.28% | −3.54% | −5.08% | −0.72% | 3.9× |
| Bittensor | 0.00% | −2.61% | −3.67% | −3.31% | −6.93% | −2.53% | 14.2× |
| S&P 500 ETF (SPY) | −0.01% | −0.26% | −0.44% | −0.86% | – | – | – |
| Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) | 0.00% | −0.26% | −0.55% | −1.24% | – | – | – |
Change from the 13:30 UK release. The ETFs are measured from the 14:30 UK open.
How it compares with this year's reports
2026 has been a year of energy-driven inflation, and crypto has traded each report as a signal for Fed hikes. After the June report in July, which showed prices falling, Bitcoin rose 1.6% in the first hour. After August's report, which was firmer, it fell 0.7% in the first hour and 1.4% at four hours. In September it rose 0.6%. The Fed then raised rates on 16 September, its first hike since 2023. This report was the hottest of the four on core prices, and it produced the steadiest fall.
The shape matters as much as the size. A first-candle drop that keeps extending for four hours, with stocks falling alongside, is what a real repricing of rate expectations looks like, rather than a quick reaction that reverses. Bitcoin was -3.3% a day later and Ether -5.9%, though Bitcoin was almost back to its release price after a week, -0.3%.
Sources: release time and figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (public domain), first-print values via ALFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Crypto: Bitstamp 5-minute candles; SPY/QQQ: IEX. No consensus forecasts are shown because they are proprietary; comparisons are with the previous release. “× normal hour” compares the first-hour move with the median move in matched quiet hours. How we measure it.