Bitcoin NFP Reaction: BTC After US Jobs Reports
How Bitcoin, Ethereum and GBP/USD moved after every US non-farm payrolls (jobs report) release since 2017.
Next release: Fri 06 Nov 2026 13:30 UK · October 2026 data
Not financial advice. Historical data only. Past reactions do not predict future moves. Figures are computed automatically from public data and may contain errors. Crypto and leveraged trading carry a high risk of loss.
Releases tracked
117
2017-01-06 → 2026-10-02
BTC avg first-hour move
0.71%
1.4× a typical hour
First-hour move reversed by +4h
31%
BTC, n=117 · ETH 32%
BTC higher after 1 day
53%
median +0.06%
Summary
| Asset / horizon | Median move | % up | Avg absolute move | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) +1h | +0.09% | 58% | 0.71% | 117 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +4h | +0.05% | 51% | 1.20% | 117 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +1d | +0.06% | 53% | 1.98% | 117 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +7d | +0.26% | 54% | 6.44% | 117 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +1h | +0.05% | 52% | 0.77% | 109 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +4h | -0.10% | 48% | 1.61% | 109 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +1d | +0.17% | 52% | 2.52% | 109 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +7d | +0.82% | 55% | 8.51% | 109 |
| GBP/USD next noon NY fix | -0.03% | 47% | 0.45% | 117 |
| GBP/USD +7d | +0.03% | 50% | 0.99% | 117 |
Every past release
BTC/ETH: Bitstamp BTC/USD and ETH/USD price at the exact release minute vs +1h/+4h/+1d/+7d. "Reversed?" = the +4h move has the opposite sign to the +1h move. GBP/USD: first Federal Reserve H.10 noon New York fix after the release vs the last fix before it (for 8:30am ET US releases this is the same day's noon fix). Click a date for the official release.
| Release (UK time) | BTC +1h | BTC +4h | Reversed? | BTC +1d | BTC +7d | ETH +1h | ETH +4h | GBP/USD next noon NY fix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 02 Oct 2026 13:30 | +0.01% | -1.64% | yes | -2.03% | -4.10% | +0.07% | -2.02% | +0.29% |
| Fri 04 Sep 2026 13:30 | -2.50% | -2.21% | no | -2.05% | -5.25% | -3.14% | -2.95% | -0.11% |
| Fri 07 Aug 2026 13:30 | +0.05% | -0.29% | yes | -0.22% | -3.47% | -0.25% | -0.92% | +0.31% |
| Thu 02 Jul 2026 13:30 | +0.56% | -0.23% | yes | +1.00% | +2.41% | +1.06% | +1.50% | +0.63% |
| Fri 05 Jun 2026 13:30 | -0.22% | -2.09% | no | -2.40% | +1.93% | +0.05% | -4.22% | -0.60% |
| Fri 08 May 2026 13:30 | -0.89% | -0.47% | no | +0.11% | +0.26% | -0.84% | -0.14% | +0.10% |
| Fri 03 Apr 2026 13:30 | -0.66% | -0.21% | no | -0.03% | +7.56% | -0.92% | -0.55% | -0.29% |
| Fri 06 Mar 2026 13:30 | -1.52% | -2.59% | no | -2.94% | +4.24% | -1.91% | -3.67% | +0.59% |
| Wed 11 Feb 2026 13:30 | +1.53% | -0.54% | yes | +1.14% | +0.71% | +2.03% | -0.86% | -0.07% |
| Fri 09 Jan 2026 13:30 | -0.03% | +0.59% | yes | +0.11% | +5.53% | -0.08% | +0.42% | -0.13% |
| Tue 16 Dec 2025 13:30 | -0.50% | -0.05% | no | -0.34% | +0.46% | -1.07% | -1.13% | +0.37% |
| Thu 20 Nov 2025 13:30 | -0.51% | -5.23% | no | -9.26% | -1.22% | -0.31% | -6.51% | +0.02% |
| Fri 05 Sep 2025 13:30 | +0.31% | -1.68% | yes | -1.61% | +2.25% | +0.34% | -3.63% | +0.76% |
| Fri 01 Aug 2025 13:30 | +0.22% | +0.13% | no | -1.50% | +1.10% | +0.24% | -0.48% | +0.30% |
| Thu 03 Jul 2025 13:30 | -0.22% | -0.40% | no | -0.70% | +1.21% | -0.31% | -1.13% | +0.24% |
| Fri 06 Jun 2025 13:30 | +0.05% | +1.18% | no | +1.35% | +1.12% | +0.04% | +1.15% | -0.38% |
| Fri 02 May 2025 13:30 | +0.19% | +0.86% | no | -0.79% | +6.49% | +0.09% | +1.35% | +0.08% |
| Fri 04 Apr 2025 13:30 | +0.11% | +0.58% | no | +1.14% | -0.32% | +0.30% | +0.65% | -1.42% |
| Fri 07 Mar 2025 13:30 | -0.31% | -2.33% | no | -3.45% | -6.80% | -0.26% | -1.64% | +0.19% |
| Fri 07 Feb 2025 13:30 | +2.00% | -0.27% | yes | -1.58% | -1.20% | +1.77% | -2.37% | -0.31% |
| Fri 10 Jan 2025 13:30 | -0.57% | -0.48% | no | -0.41% | +8.15% | -1.05% | -0.64% | -0.72% |
| Fri 06 Dec 2024 13:30 | +1.31% | +1.44% | no | +1.50% | +2.06% | +1.79% | +4.63% | -0.08% |
| Fri 01 Nov 2024 12:30 | +0.17% | +0.30% | no | -0.74% | +8.59% | +0.64% | +0.24% | +0.80% |
| Fri 04 Oct 2024 13:30 | +0.02% | +0.70% | no | +1.11% | -0.51% | -0.17% | +1.99% | -0.05% |
| Fri 06 Sep 2024 13:30 | +1.56% | -3.29% | yes | -2.58% | +3.22% | +1.12% | -3.97% | -0.22% |
| Fri 02 Aug 2024 13:30 | +0.58% | -2.20% | yes | -3.66% | -6.28% | +0.12% | -4.06% | +0.20% |
| Fri 05 Jul 2024 13:30 | -0.26% | +1.74% | yes | +1.90% | +3.26% | +0.45% | +0.86% | +0.32% |
| Fri 07 Jun 2024 13:30 | -0.76% | -1.06% | no | -3.58% | -6.59% | -0.75% | -0.84% | -0.46% |
| Fri 03 May 2024 13:30 | +3.49% | +4.76% | no | +8.08% | +6.91% | +2.37% | +3.71% | +0.34% |
| Fri 05 Apr 2024 13:30 | +0.34% | +1.85% | no | +1.56% | +6.11% | +0.27% | +2.20% | -0.28% |
| Fri 08 Mar 2024 13:30 | +0.78% | +1.29% | no | +1.58% | +0.35% | +0.46% | -0.36% | +0.44% |
| Fri 02 Feb 2024 13:30 | -0.91% | +0.34% | yes | -0.06% | +10.00% | -1.08% | -0.44% | -0.79% |
| Fri 05 Jan 2024 13:30 | -0.43% | -1.13% | no | -0.55% | +4.10% | -0.42% | -1.16% | +0.38% |
| Fri 08 Dec 2023 13:30 | -0.20% | -0.10% | no | +0.38% | -2.93% | -0.44% | -0.53% | -0.34% |
| Fri 03 Nov 2023 12:30 | +0.20% | +1.23% | no | +1.26% | +7.79% | +0.23% | +1.30% | +1.63% |
| Fri 06 Oct 2023 13:30 | -1.01% | +0.73% | yes | +1.01% | -3.04% | -0.48% | +0.41% | +0.69% |
| Fri 01 Sep 2023 13:30 | -0.15% | -0.67% | no | -0.94% | -0.80% | -0.26% | -0.83% | -0.58% |
| Fri 04 Aug 2023 13:30 | +0.12% | +0.35% | no | -0.49% | +0.90% | +0.19% | +0.67% | +0.52% |
| Fri 07 Jul 2023 13:30 | +0.57% | +0.78% | no | +0.31% | +3.63% | +0.61% | +0.78% | +0.92% |
| Fri 02 Jun 2023 13:30 | -0.23% | -0.30% | no | +0.08% | -1.83% | -0.19% | -0.20% | -0.54% |
| Fri 05 May 2023 13:30 | -0.59% | +1.26% | yes | +0.35% | -9.52% | +0.28% | +4.20% | +0.56% |
| Fri 07 Apr 2023 13:30 | -0.18% | +0.05% | yes | +0.42% | +10.47% | -0.09% | +0.31% | -0.27% |
| Fri 10 Mar 2023 13:30 | +0.47% | -0.11% | yes | +1.43% | +33.64% | +0.98% | +0.85% | +1.01% |
| Fri 03 Feb 2023 13:30 | -0.83% | +0.30% | yes | +0.19% | -7.26% | -0.91% | +1.00% | -1.53% |
| Fri 06 Jan 2023 13:30 | +0.39% | +0.78% | no | +1.39% | +13.09% | +1.14% | +2.24% | +1.36% |
| Fri 02 Dec 2022 13:30 | -0.72% | -0.38% | no | -0.35% | +1.26% | -0.87% | -0.54% | +0.33% |
| Fri 04 Nov 2022 12:30 | +1.73% | +1.51% | no | +3.93% | -15.99% | +2.94% | +3.04% | +0.86% |
| Fri 07 Oct 2022 13:30 | -2.00% | -3.24% | no | -2.54% | -1.88% | -1.98% | -2.61% | -0.15% |
| Fri 02 Sep 2022 13:30 | +1.22% | +0.64% | no | -1.42% | +4.62% | +2.74% | +1.70% | +0.36% |
| Fri 05 Aug 2022 13:30 | -1.66% | -1.78% | no | -0.80% | +1.51% | -2.34% | -2.82% | -0.66% |
| Fri 08 Jul 2022 13:30 | -1.16% | +0.28% | yes | -0.43% | -3.59% | -1.19% | -0.27% | +0.35% |
| Fri 03 Jun 2022 13:30 | -0.69% | -1.07% | no | -0.59% | +1.04% | -1.00% | -0.89% | -0.49% |
| Fri 06 May 2022 13:30 | -0.00% | +0.29% | yes | +0.05% | -14.89% | -0.15% | -0.07% | +0.08% |
| Fri 01 Apr 2022 13:30 | +1.25% | +3.66% | no | +4.22% | -3.32% | +2.00% | +4.84% | -0.29% |
| Fri 04 Mar 2022 13:30 | -0.45% | -1.59% | no | -6.02% | -4.53% | -0.93% | -1.66% | -0.84% |
| Fri 04 Feb 2022 13:30 | -0.16% | +6.40% | yes | +9.41% | +15.45% | -0.65% | +4.14% | -0.43% |
| Fri 07 Jan 2022 13:30 | -1.01% | -0.94% | no | -0.95% | +0.08% | -0.37% | -1.13% | +0.32% |
| Fri 03 Dec 2021 13:30 | -0.40% | -3.68% | no | -17.19% | -14.15% | -0.54% | -6.21% | -0.53% |
| Fri 05 Nov 2021 12:30 | +0.38% | -0.61% | yes | -1.28% | +4.40% | +0.74% | +0.15% | -0.02% |
| Fri 08 Oct 2021 13:30 | +0.07% | -0.94% | yes | +0.61% | +8.45% | +0.64% | +0.76% | -0.03% |
| Fri 03 Sep 2021 13:30 | +1.36% | +0.98% | no | +0.06% | -8.10% | -0.10% | +0.46% | +0.27% |
| Fri 06 Aug 2021 13:30 | +0.00% | +3.94% | no | +8.30% | +13.26% | -0.15% | +3.04% | -0.40% |
| Fri 02 Jul 2021 13:30 | +1.37% | +1.99% | no | +5.17% | -0.42% | +1.23% | +4.03% | +0.11% |
| Fri 04 Jun 2021 13:30 | +2.87% | +3.18% | no | +0.36% | +4.00% | +3.73% | +4.19% | +0.54% |
| Fri 07 May 2021 13:30 | +1.21% | +1.99% | no | +3.65% | -10.86% | +1.73% | +2.92% | +0.86% |
| Fri 02 Apr 2021 13:30 | -0.15% | -0.07% | no | -0.16% | -1.56% | -0.17% | +3.16% | +0.00% |
| Fri 05 Mar 2021 13:30 | +0.88% | -0.50% | yes | -1.94% | +14.84% | +0.93% | +0.06% | -1.30% |
| Fri 05 Feb 2021 13:30 | +0.53% | -0.12% | yes | +6.08% | +26.18% | +2.60% | +2.80% | +0.36% |
| Fri 08 Jan 2021 13:30 | -0.25% | -0.17% | no | -0.96% | -9.44% | +0.30% | -1.10% | +0.24% |
| Fri 04 Dec 2020 13:30 | +0.79% | -0.02% | yes | +0.05% | -5.95% | +0.90% | -0.09% | -0.08% |
| Fri 06 Nov 2020 13:30 | -0.26% | -0.17% | no | -0.52% | +4.64% | -0.43% | -0.19% | +0.35% |
| Fri 02 Oct 2020 13:30 | -0.26% | +0.54% | yes | +0.44% | +5.47% | -0.59% | +1.71% | +0.21% |
| Fri 04 Sep 2020 13:30 | +0.40% | +0.15% | no | -3.09% | -1.40% | +0.54% | -2.62% | -0.25% |
| Fri 07 Aug 2020 13:30 | +0.26% | -0.88% | yes | +0.50% | +0.13% | +0.45% | -2.01% | -0.79% |
| Thu 02 Jul 2020 13:30 | +0.59% | -1.58% | yes | -0.90% | +2.44% | +0.84% | -1.26% | -0.04% |
| Fri 05 Jun 2020 13:30 | +0.09% | +0.35% | no | +0.46% | -2.00% | -0.16% | -0.38% | +0.75% |
| Fri 08 May 2020 13:30 | -0.40% | +0.76% | yes | -2.70% | -3.92% | -0.09% | +0.85% | +0.70% |
| Fri 03 Apr 2020 13:30 | -1.42% | -4.71% | no | -4.14% | -1.17% | -1.02% | -4.63% | -1.23% |
| Fri 06 Mar 2020 13:30 | -0.06% | -0.17% | no | -0.05% | -36.64% | -0.00% | +0.23% | +0.55% |
| Fri 07 Feb 2020 13:30 | +0.17% | +0.23% | no | +0.85% | +4.99% | +0.86% | +0.92% | -0.21% |
| Fri 10 Jan 2020 13:30 | -0.14% | +0.26% | yes | +1.77% | +11.63% | -0.19% | +1.30% | -0.07% |
| Fri 06 Dec 2019 13:30 | +0.08% | +0.48% | no | +1.91% | -2.20% | -0.14% | +0.40% | -0.29% |
| Fri 01 Nov 2019 12:30 | -0.27% | -0.18% | no | +1.40% | -1.97% | -0.83% | -0.84% | +0.09% |
| Fri 04 Oct 2019 13:30 | +0.02% | +0.31% | no | -0.79% | +2.31% | -0.02% | +1.03% | -0.65% |
| Fri 06 Sep 2019 13:30 | -0.78% | -0.37% | no | -4.68% | -5.55% | -0.19% | -0.44% | -0.31% |
| Fri 02 Aug 2019 13:30 | +0.20% | -0.06% | yes | +2.24% | +11.35% | +0.02% | -1.17% | -0.11% |
| Fri 05 Jul 2019 13:30 | +0.47% | +0.81% | no | +2.00% | +4.53% | +0.32% | -0.48% | -0.49% |
| Fri 07 Jun 2019 13:30 | +0.41% | +1.51% | no | +0.04% | +4.41% | +0.10% | +2.01% | +0.21% |
| Fri 03 May 2019 13:30 | +0.38% | -0.15% | yes | -0.08% | +9.23% | +0.20% | -0.41% | +0.82% |
| Fri 05 Apr 2019 13:30 | +0.89% | +0.19% | no | +0.24% | +1.51% | +2.21% | +0.10% | -0.47% |
| Fri 08 Mar 2019 13:30 | +0.21% | +0.27% | no | +0.82% | +0.19% | +0.75% | +0.46% | -0.74% |
| Fri 01 Feb 2019 13:30 | +0.17% | -0.10% | yes | +0.27% | -1.03% | -0.01% | -0.70% | -0.31% |
| Fri 04 Jan 2019 13:30 | -0.03% | -0.35% | no | +1.24% | -3.80% | -0.07% | -1.47% | +0.85% |
| Fri 07 Dec 2018 13:30 | +0.39% | -4.48% | yes | -0.68% | -3.63% | +1.51% | -3.54% | -0.22% |
| Fri 02 Nov 2018 12:30 | +0.19% | +0.14% | no | -0.29% | +0.17% | +0.70% | +0.94% | -0.07% |
| Fri 05 Oct 2018 13:30 | +0.06% | +0.04% | no | +0.25% | -4.91% | +0.14% | +0.19% | +0.67% |
| Fri 07 Sep 2018 13:30 | +0.19% | +0.45% | no | -0.46% | +0.71% | -0.02% | -0.72% | +0.01% |
| Fri 03 Aug 2018 13:30 | +0.26% | +1.69% | no | +0.17% | -11.89% | +0.62% | +0.84% | -0.11% |
| Fri 06 Jul 2018 13:30 | -0.30% | -0.45% | no | -0.16% | -5.00% | -0.04% | -0.10% | +0.26% |
| Fri 01 Jun 2018 13:30 | +0.52% | +0.72% | no | +3.28% | +2.24% | +0.05% | +0.57% | +0.52% |
| Fri 04 May 2018 13:30 | -0.35% | -1.06% | no | +1.87% | -12.21% | +0.65% | -3.24% | -0.25% |
| Fri 06 Apr 2018 13:30 | +0.36% | +0.64% | no | +4.65% | +23.63% | +0.20% | +0.70% | +0.69% |
| Fri 09 Mar 2018 13:30 | +2.84% | -0.96% | yes | +4.50% | -4.31% | +2.58% | +0.90% | +0.28% |
| Fri 02 Feb 2018 13:30 | +0.25% | +1.51% | no | +5.32% | -4.13% | -1.98% | -1.63% | -0.85% |
| Fri 05 Jan 2018 13:30 | +0.33% | +2.03% | no | +2.44% | -12.31% | -0.81% | -4.14% | +0.17% |
| Fri 08 Dec 2017 13:30 | +4.41% | +3.51% | no | +2.41% | +20.62% | +1.14% | +3.01% | -0.48% |
| Fri 03 Nov 2017 12:30 | -0.58% | +0.29% | yes | -1.58% | -5.41% | +0.58% | +0.95% | -0.01% |
| Fri 06 Oct 2017 13:30 | -0.87% | -0.62% | no | -1.79% | +27.20% | +0.00% | -0.18% | -0.53% |
| Fri 01 Sep 2017 13:30 | +0.59% | +0.15% | no | -4.36% | -3.91% | +0.40% | -0.21% | +0.65% |
| Fri 04 Aug 2017 13:30 | +0.31% | +0.94% | no | +11.15% | +23.86% | – | – | -0.82% |
| Fri 07 Jul 2017 13:30 | -0.49% | -0.42% | no | -0.42% | -8.80% | – | – | -0.67% |
| Fri 02 Jun 2017 13:30 | -0.39% | -0.45% | no | +3.36% | +15.74% | – | – | -0.07% |
| Fri 05 May 2017 13:30 | +0.70% | -3.74% | yes | -1.11% | +13.84% | – | – | +0.31% |
| Fri 07 Apr 2017 13:30 | +0.41% | +0.25% | no | +0.15% | -2.65% | – | – | -0.70% |
| Fri 10 Mar 2017 13:30 | +8.57% | +7.26% | no | +1.60% | -1.70% | – | – | -0.07% |
| Fri 03 Feb 2017 13:30 | +0.35% | +0.70% | no | +0.46% | -3.82% | – | – | -0.30% |
| Fri 06 Jan 2017 13:30 | +0.54% | +2.67% | no | -2.68% | -9.73% | – | – | -0.81% |
FAQ
How does Bitcoin react to the US jobs report (NFP)?
Across 117 scheduled US jobs report (NFP) releases since 2017 with Bitstamp data, BTC's median move in the first hour was +0.09% and the average absolute first-hour move was 0.71%, about 1.4× a typical hour at the same time of day. The first-hour direction had reversed by +4 hours in 31% of cases. BTC was higher one day later 53% of the time. Historical data only, not a forecast.
What time is it released in the UK?
BLS standard release time 08:30 ET (BLS release schedule). The most recent release was at Fri 02 Oct 2026 13:30 UK time.
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