FOMC Bitcoin Price Impact: BTC Reaction to Every Fed Decision
FOMC Bitcoin price impact: BTC and ETH moves after every Fed rate decision since 2017, at +1h, +4h, +1d and +7d, plus how often the first move reversed.
Next release: Wed 28 Oct 2026 18:00 UK
Not financial advice. Historical data only. Past reactions do not predict future moves. Figures are computed automatically from public data and may contain errors. Crypto and leveraged trading carry a high risk of loss.
Releases tracked
80
2017-02-01 → 2026-09-16
BTC avg first-hour move
0.85%
2.0× a typical hour
First-hour move reversed by +4h
22%
BTC, n=77 · ETH 22%
BTC higher after 1 day
49%
median -0.05%
Summary
| Asset / horizon | Median move | % up | Avg absolute move | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) +1h | +0.02% | 51% | 0.85% | 77 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +4h | +0.18% | 57% | 1.58% | 77 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +1d | -0.05% | 49% | 3.30% | 77 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +7d | +0.80% | 53% | 8.03% | 77 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +1h | +0.21% | 60% | 1.18% | 72 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +4h | +0.08% | 51% | 1.96% | 72 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +1d | -0.43% | 49% | 4.13% | 72 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +7d | -0.17% | 50% | 10.58% | 72 |
| GBP/USD next noon NY fix | -0.04% | 49% | 0.65% | 77 |
| GBP/USD +7d | -0.62% | 32% | 1.11% | 77 |
Summary stats use scheduled releases only (3 unscheduled emergency statements are listed in the table but excluded).
Every past release
BTC/ETH: Bitstamp BTC/USD and ETH/USD price at the exact release minute vs +1h/+4h/+1d/+7d. "Reversed?" = the +4h move has the opposite sign to the +1h move. GBP/USD: first Federal Reserve H.10 noon New York fix after the release vs the last fix before it (for 8:30am ET US releases this is the same day's noon fix). Click a date for the official release.
| Release (UK time) | BTC +1h | BTC +4h | Reversed? | BTC +1d | BTC +7d | ETH +1h | ETH +4h | GBP/USD next noon NY fix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 16 Sep 2026 19:00 | -0.17% | +0.30% | yes | +1.21% | +11.39% | +0.27% | +0.53% | -0.77% |
| Wed 29 Jul 2026 19:00 | +0.37% | -0.62% | yes | +0.96% | +0.80% | +0.28% | -0.88% | +1.32% |
| Wed 17 Jun 2026 19:00 | -0.89% | -2.83% | no | -5.35% | -10.21% | -1.05% | -2.82% | -1.28% |
| Wed 29 Apr 2026 19:00 | -0.87% | -0.32% | no | +0.11% | +6.97% | -1.91% | -1.32% | +0.64% |
| Wed 18 Mar 2026 18:00 | -0.71% | -0.50% | no | -2.48% | -1.21% | -1.05% | -0.07% | +0.29% |
| Wed 28 Jan 2026 19:00 | -0.16% | -0.19% | no | -6.81% | -18.07% | +0.06% | +0.11% | +0.06% |
| Wed 10 Dec 2025 19:00 | +0.50% | +0.02% | no | -1.97% | -7.27% | +0.28% | -1.02% | +0.66% |
| Wed 29 Oct 2025 18:00 | -0.94% | -0.24% | no | -3.94% | -7.13% | -2.38% | -1.44% | -0.72% |
| Wed 17 Sep 2025 19:00 | -0.38% | +0.33% | yes | +1.68% | -1.63% | +0.27% | +1.92% | -0.80% |
| Wed 30 Jul 2025 19:00 | -1.10% | -0.41% | no | -0.05% | -1.91% | -1.84% | -1.14% | -0.41% |
| Wed 18 Jun 2025 19:00 | -0.75% | +0.72% | yes | +0.18% | +2.98% | -0.79% | +1.21% | -0.04% |
| Wed 07 May 2025 19:00 | +0.28% | +0.88% | no | +4.91% | +7.22% | +0.52% | +0.33% | -0.43% |
| Wed 19 Mar 2025 18:00 | +1.81% | +1.85% | no | -0.11% | +2.91% | +1.15% | +0.77% | +0.03% |
| Wed 29 Jan 2025 19:00 | +0.72% | +0.64% | no | +2.71% | -5.95% | +0.38% | +0.50% | +0.14% |
| Wed 18 Dec 2024 19:00 | -1.88% | -3.43% | no | -5.65% | -5.80% | -3.38% | -5.67% | -1.31% |
| Thu 07 Nov 2024 19:00 | -0.06% | -0.97% | no | +0.29% | +16.31% | +0.25% | +0.09% | -0.62% |
| Wed 18 Sep 2024 19:00 | +1.00% | +0.31% | no | +6.17% | +5.24% | +1.21% | +1.02% | +0.61% |
| Wed 31 Jul 2024 19:00 | -0.22% | -2.54% | no | -5.25% | -16.61% | +0.06% | -2.35% | -0.53% |
| Wed 12 Jun 2024 19:00 | -1.39% | -1.84% | no | -4.19% | -6.79% | -1.42% | -1.61% | -0.62% |
| Wed 01 May 2024 19:00 | +2.65% | +0.81% | no | +3.24% | +9.12% | +2.31% | +1.50% | +0.15% |
| Wed 20 Mar 2024 18:00 | +2.06% | +5.70% | no | +2.48% | +7.10% | +2.89% | +6.09% | -0.34% |
| Wed 31 Jan 2024 19:00 | -0.35% | -2.02% | no | -1.52% | +0.30% | -0.57% | -2.24% | -0.05% |
| Wed 13 Dec 2023 19:00 | +1.45% | +2.03% | no | +1.74% | +4.81% | +1.65% | +2.11% | +1.92% |
| Wed 01 Nov 2023 18:00 | +0.25% | +2.65% | no | +0.77% | +2.32% | +0.66% | +2.13% | +0.40% |
| Wed 20 Sep 2023 19:00 | -0.11% | -0.32% | no | -2.05% | -3.72% | +0.15% | -0.21% | -0.73% |
| Wed 26 Jul 2023 19:00 | +0.42% | +0.73% | no | -0.16% | -0.44% | +0.73% | +0.71% | -0.46% |
| Wed 14 Jun 2023 19:00 | -0.40% | -3.43% | no | -3.42% | +15.64% | -0.47% | -5.01% | +0.52% |
| Wed 03 May 2023 19:00 | -0.42% | +1.32% | yes | +0.98% | -3.67% | +0.72% | +0.88% | +0.26% |
| Wed 22 Mar 2023 18:00 | -1.77% | -5.05% | no | -0.84% | -1.19% | -0.98% | -3.83% | +0.74% |
| Wed 01 Feb 2023 19:00 | +1.40% | +2.85% | no | +4.32% | -0.77% | +2.43% | +3.64% | -0.39% |
| Wed 14 Dec 2022 19:00 | -2.35% | -2.10% | no | -4.52% | -7.84% | -1.95% | -1.54% | -1.63% |
| Wed 02 Nov 2022 18:00 | +0.12% | -1.37% | yes | -1.01% | -17.15% | +0.25% | -2.89% | -2.48% |
| Wed 21 Sep 2022 19:00 | -0.94% | -6.87% | no | -3.76% | -2.40% | -1.18% | -10.12% | -0.54% |
| Wed 27 Jul 2022 19:00 | +4.29% | +4.88% | no | +11.04% | +8.47% | +5.50% | +7.16% | +0.82% |
| Wed 15 Jun 2022 19:00 | +2.04% | +5.23% | no | -0.20% | -3.93% | +5.27% | +10.10% | +2.36% |
| Wed 04 May 2022 19:00 | +1.49% | +1.78% | no | -5.74% | -23.58% | +2.89% | +2.84% | -1.23% |
| Wed 16 Mar 2022 18:00 | -1.17% | +1.62% | yes | +0.98% | +4.34% | -1.15% | +2.28% | +0.48% |
| Wed 26 Jan 2022 19:00 | -1.05% | -3.82% | no | -4.64% | -1.28% | -1.66% | -6.72% | -0.97% |
| Wed 15 Dec 2021 19:00 | +1.76% | +2.04% | no | +0.36% | +1.60% | +4.27% | +5.13% | +0.84% |
| Wed 03 Nov 2021 18:00 | +1.08% | +1.07% | no | -2.59% | +9.77% | +2.31% | +1.26% | -1.21% |
| Wed 22 Sep 2021 19:00 | +0.06% | +0.37% | no | +4.08% | -4.50% | -0.14% | +0.66% | +0.56% |
| Wed 28 Jul 2021 19:00 | +4.00% | +3.09% | no | +1.82% | +1.23% | +2.70% | +1.94% | +0.59% |
| Wed 16 Jun 2021 19:00 | -1.14% | -1.04% | no | -3.92% | -14.24% | -0.21% | -0.55% | -1.37% |
| Wed 28 Apr 2021 19:00 | +0.21% | +0.01% | no | -3.92% | +4.45% | +0.43% | +1.64% | +0.28% |
| Wed 17 Mar 2021 18:00 | +3.70% | +5.16% | no | +6.54% | +1.00% | +1.82% | +1.87% | +0.36% |
| Wed 27 Jan 2021 19:00 | +3.48% | +2.86% | no | +9.97% | +25.09% | +3.60% | +2.34% | +0.28% |
| Wed 16 Dec 2020 19:00 | +0.76% | +3.78% | no | +12.93% | +14.50% | +0.73% | +2.59% | +0.79% |
| Thu 05 Nov 2020 19:00 | +1.31% | +4.14% | no | +3.44% | +7.77% | +0.76% | +1.90% | +0.35% |
| Wed 16 Sep 2020 19:00 | -0.25% | -0.21% | no | -1.55% | -5.27% | -0.87% | -0.75% | -0.19% |
| Wed 29 Jul 2020 19:00 | +0.33% | +1.07% | no | -1.16% | +4.50% | +0.34% | +0.81% | +0.47% |
| Wed 10 Jun 2020 19:00 | +0.63% | +0.81% | no | -4.12% | -3.89% | +0.89% | +1.62% | -0.96% |
| Wed 29 Apr 2020 19:00 | -0.92% | +1.70% | yes | -1.70% | +6.49% | -0.28% | -0.06% | +1.39% |
| Mon 23 Mar 2020 12:00unscheduled | +8.06% | +6.35% | no | +15.17% | +8.83% | +8.06% | +5.19% | -2.14% |
| Sun 15 Mar 2020 21:00unscheduled | +14.71% | +1.08% | no | -5.31% | +14.67% | +11.05% | +0.56% | -1.03% |
| Tue 03 Mar 2020 15:00unscheduled | +0.06% | -0.27% | yes | -0.27% | -8.04% | -0.19% | -0.92% | +0.28% |
| Wed 29 Jan 2020 19:00 | +0.20% | -0.25% | yes | +1.36% | +3.47% | +0.28% | -0.19% | +0.72% |
| Wed 11 Dec 2019 19:00 | +0.13% | +0.14% | no | +0.27% | -4.37% | -0.25% | +0.07% | -0.33% |
| Wed 30 Oct 2019 18:00 | +0.51% | +0.35% | no | +1.57% | +2.03% | +0.77% | -0.02% | +0.52% |
| Wed 18 Sep 2019 19:00 | -0.06% | +0.11% | yes | -1.48% | -17.76% | -0.40% | -0.56% | +0.02% |
| Wed 31 Jul 2019 19:00 | -0.48% | +0.18% | yes | +0.72% | +17.39% | -0.31% | -0.07% | -0.61% |
| Wed 19 Jun 2019 19:00 | -0.29% | +1.08% | yes | +2.42% | +46.96% | -0.33% | +0.49% | +0.59% |
| Wed 01 May 2019 19:00 | -0.73% | -0.96% | no | +0.77% | +9.82% | -0.91% | -1.83% | -0.45% |
| Wed 20 Mar 2019 18:00 | +0.22% | +0.23% | no | -0.92% | +0.29% | +0.14% | +0.51% | -0.89% |
| Wed 30 Jan 2019 19:00 | -0.17% | -0.05% | no | -1.19% | -2.20% | -0.48% | -0.40% | +0.56% |
| Wed 19 Dec 2018 19:00 | -0.66% | -2.14% | no | +6.75% | -0.92% | -1.89% | -4.32% | -0.15% |
| Thu 08 Nov 2018 19:00 | -0.03% | -0.09% | no | -1.30% | -14.07% | +0.36% | -0.17% | -1.05% |
| Wed 26 Sep 2018 19:00 | -0.21% | -0.83% | no | -0.30% | -0.91% | -0.75% | -2.28% | -0.59% |
| Wed 01 Aug 2018 19:00 | -0.03% | -0.83% | no | -0.41% | -17.21% | -0.60% | -2.42% | -0.65% |
| Wed 13 Jun 2018 19:00 | +0.10% | -0.66% | yes | +4.57% | +6.78% | +0.34% | -1.22% | -0.34% |
| Wed 02 May 2018 19:00 | -0.06% | +1.22% | yes | +6.32% | +2.15% | +0.08% | +1.40% | -0.30% |
| Wed 21 Mar 2018 18:00 | +0.43% | +0.63% | no | -2.17% | -10.52% | +0.86% | +1.24% | +0.24% |
| Wed 31 Jan 2018 19:00 | +0.24% | +0.72% | no | -10.07% | -17.40% | -0.48% | -0.10% | +0.40% |
| Wed 13 Dec 2017 19:00 | +1.70% | +2.10% | no | +2.20% | +5.47% | +4.03% | +3.00% | +0.56% |
| Wed 01 Nov 2017 18:00 | -0.30% | -0.45% | no | +5.78% | +17.02% | +0.08% | -0.16% | -1.43% |
| Wed 20 Sep 2017 19:00 | +0.02% | -1.29% | yes | -7.71% | +2.27% | +0.17% | -0.76% | +0.09% |
| Wed 26 Jul 2017 19:00 | -0.08% | -0.34% | no | +4.33% | +9.42% | – | – | +0.13% |
| Wed 14 Jun 2017 19:00 | +0.24% | -4.25% | yes | -13.58% | +4.95% | – | – | -0.31% |
| Wed 03 May 2017 19:00 | +0.14% | +0.59% | no | +7.49% | +18.77% | – | – | -0.05% |
| Wed 15 Mar 2017 18:00 | -0.13% | +0.13% | yes | -2.33% | -18.75% | – | – | +1.21% |
| Wed 01 Feb 2017 19:00 | +0.10% | +0.82% | no | +2.63% | +8.49% | – | – | -0.81% |
FAQ
What is the FOMC impact on the Bitcoin price?
Across 77 scheduled FOMC decision releases since 2017 with Bitstamp data, BTC's median move in the first hour was +0.02% and the average absolute first-hour move was 0.85%, about 2.0× a typical hour at the same time of day. The first-hour direction had reversed by +4 hours in 22% of cases. BTC was higher one day later 49% of the time. Historical data only, not a forecast.
What time is it released in the UK?
Statement page: 'For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT'. The most recent release was at Wed 16 Sep 2026 19:00 UK time.
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