US PCE inflation (Personal Income and Outlays) · 114 releases since 2017
Bitcoin PCE Reaction: BTC After the Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge
BTC barely notices US PCE: 1.1× a normal hour, no clearer than noise.
BTC typically moves ±0.36% in the first hour after US PCE inflation (Personal Income and Outlays) (median size), about 1.1× a normal hour, and that first move has reversed by +4h in 36% of releases.
Next release: · Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 data
The interactive explorer needs JavaScript. The full table of every release is below.
GBP/USD uses the Federal Reserve's daily noon New York fix, so only daily windows are available (no intraday FX data we can license yet).
Dollar index: the Federal Reserve's nominal broad US dollar index (FRED DTWEXBGS), one value per day, so only daily windows are available.
Average path after the release
Distribution of moves
Every selected release
Click a row to chart that release · click a column to sortAt a glance
The PCE price index, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the monthly Personal Income and Outlays report at 8:30am New York time, is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. It usually lands after CPI and PPI, so much of it is already expected.
How much bigger than normal, by market
Median move after a release vs a matched normal window (crypto: same hour on quiet weekdays; SPY/QQQ: opening hour, or 2pm ET for FOMC, on days without the release; GBP/USD: daily fix). Top-10% = share of releases giving a move bigger than 90% of normal ones; 10% would mean no effect.
| Market | × normal | Top-10% | n | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA | 1.7× | 23% | 57 | thin trading inflates this, 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles |
| SPY | 1.5× | 26% | 112 | |
| QQQ | 1.4× | 19% | 110 | |
| SOL | 1.2× | 27% | 48 | 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles |
| GBP/USD | 1.1× | 13% | 114 | not clearly above noise |
| ETH | 1.1× | 14% | 107 | not clearly above noise |
| LINK | 1.1× | 16% | 70 | not clearly above noise, thin trading inflates this, mostly 2022+ |
| BTC | 1.1× | 11% | 114 | not clearly above noise |
| LTC | 1.1× | 19% | 109 | not clearly above noise |
| XRP | 1.0× | 13% | 114 | not clearly above noise |
| DOGE | 0.9× | 19% | 43 | not clearly above noise, thin trading inflates this, 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles |
| BNB | 0.8× | 11% | 9 | not clearly above noise, thin trading inflates this, small sample, 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles |
| HYPE | 0.6× | 10% | 10 | not clearly above noise, thin trading inflates this, small sample, 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles |
| ZEC | 0.0× | 14% | 7 | not clearly above noise, thin trading inflates this, small sample, 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles |
Summary
| Asset / horizon | Median move | % up | Avg absolute move | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) +1h | -0.15% | 42% | 0.56% | 114 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +4h | +0.01% | 52% | 1.24% | 114 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +1d | +0.14% | 54% | 2.59% | 114 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +7d | +1.46% | 56% | 6.58% | 114 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +1h | -0.17% | 40% | 0.74% | 107 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +4h | -0.12% | 48% | 1.51% | 107 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +1d | +0.32% | 55% | 2.83% | 107 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +7d | +1.18% | 60% | 7.15% | 107 |
| GBP/USD next noon NY fix | +0.01% | 51% | 0.41% | 114 |
| GBP/USD +7d | +0.03% | 53% | 0.95% | 114 |
Every past release
BTC/ETH: Bitstamp BTC/USD and ETH/USD price at the exact release minute vs +1h/+4h/+1d/+7d. "Reversed?" = the +4h move has the opposite sign to the +1h move. GBP/USD: first Federal Reserve H.10 noon New York fix after the release vs the last fix before it (for 8:30am ET US releases this is the same day's noon fix). Click a date for the official release.
| Release (UK time) | BTC +1h | BTC +4h | Reversed? | BTC +1d | BTC +7d | ETH +1h | ETH +4h | GBP/USD next noon NY fix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source ↗ | +1.50% | +0.40% | no | -0.04% | -0.55% | +0.74% | -0.57% | +0.42% |
| Source ↗ | -0.83% | -0.82% | no | +1.08% | -2.24% | -1.08% | -0.87% | -0.36% |
| Source ↗ | -0.09% | +0.02% | yes | -1.74% | -0.52% | +0.15% | +0.04% | +1.32% |
| Source ↗ | +0.22% | -2.22% | yes | -2.23% | +0.44% | +0.42% | -3.08% | +0.43% |
| Source ↗ | -0.30% | -0.33% | no | -0.06% | -13.73% | -0.00% | +0.60% | +0.05% |
| Source ↗ | -0.23% | +0.01% | yes | +1.89% | +6.20% | -0.40% | -0.21% | +0.64% |
| Source ↗ | -0.24% | +1.17% | yes | +1.30% | +4.84% | -0.30% | +1.10% | +0.03% |
| Source ↗ | -0.32% | -0.27% | no | +1.53% | -1.76% | -0.34% | -0.13% | +0.40% |
| Source ↗ | -0.66% | -1.12% | no | -1.04% | -2.30% | -0.91% | -2.04% | +0.44% |
| Source ↗ | -0.43% | -2.28% | no | -1.27% | +1.59% | -0.62% | -3.40% | -0.23% |
| Source ↗ | +0.07% | +0.39% | no | +0.15% | +10.24% | +0.27% | +1.98% | +0.40% |
| Source ↗ | +0.13% | -1.67% | yes | -1.67% | +2.05% | +0.55% | -0.76% | -0.04% |
| Source ↗ | -0.32% | +0.01% | yes | -2.61% | -1.77% | -1.05% | -1.24% | -0.41% |
| Source ↗ | -0.44% | +0.12% | yes | +0.11% | +1.56% | -1.08% | -0.64% | -0.25% |
| Source ↗ | +0.07% | -0.83% | yes | -1.65% | -1.55% | +0.03% | -0.95% | -0.16% |
| Source ↗ | -0.52% | -1.34% | no | +1.30% | +2.08% | -1.54% | -1.96% | -0.40% |
| Source ↗ | -0.03% | -1.71% | no | -3.46% | -3.35% | +0.03% | -1.27% | -0.16% |
| Source ↗ | +1.38% | +4.34% | no | +4.62% | +10.80% | +1.95% | +5.25% | -0.29% |
| Source ↗ | -0.14% | +0.14% | yes | -2.51% | -6.79% | +0.18% | +1.22% | -0.05% |
| Source ↗ | +1.44% | +3.72% | no | +2.96% | +2.72% | +3.40% | +6.49% | +0.45% |
Show the other 94 releases
| Release (UK time) | BTC +1h | BTC +4h | Reversed? | BTC +1d | BTC +7d | ETH +1h | ETH +4h | GBP/USD next noon NY fix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source ↗ | +0.76% | +2.27% | no | +1.59% | +2.01% | +0.11% | +2.11% | +1.04% |
| Source ↗ | -0.19% | -2.24% | no | -2.86% | +4.02% | -0.44% | -3.23% | -1.20% |
| Source ↗ | +0.27% | +0.95% | no | +0.27% | -5.97% | -0.00% | +1.69% | -0.25% |
| Source ↗ | -0.00% | -2.52% | no | -0.73% | -6.16% | +0.23% | -2.70% | -0.41% |
| Source ↗ | +0.11% | +0.45% | no | +1.45% | -4.27% | -0.34% | +0.29% | -0.16% |
| Source ↗ | -0.50% | -1.57% | no | -1.14% | -9.84% | -0.56% | -1.77% | -0.10% |
| Source ↗ | +0.20% | -2.35% | yes | -1.29% | +4.89% | -0.09% | -1.81% | -0.01% |
| Source ↗ | -0.71% | -0.88% | no | -2.06% | -7.92% | -0.66% | -0.49% | -0.16% |
| Source ↗ | +0.23% | -0.87% | yes | +0.22% | -4.65% | +0.04% | -1.23% | +0.02% |
| Source ↗ | +1.70% | -0.88% | yes | +0.58% | +7.50% | +0.81% | -1.00% | -0.30% |
| Source ↗ | -0.05% | +1.39% | yes | +1.34% | +4.61% | -0.03% | +0.98% | +0.16% |
| Source ↗ | -0.52% | -0.05% | no | +0.11% | -2.13% | +0.03% | +1.30% | +0.41% |
| Source ↗ | -0.38% | -0.54% | no | +1.35% | +14.24% | -0.63% | -0.45% | -0.39% |
| Source ↗ | +0.73% | +0.12% | no | +0.65% | +1.07% | +0.85% | +0.03% | +0.31% |
| Source ↗ | +0.21% | -0.37% | yes | -0.01% | +2.74% | +0.13% | -0.13% | -0.07% |
| Source ↗ | -0.21% | -1.85% | no | -4.25% | -5.58% | -0.25% | -1.74% | -0.46% |
| Source ↗ | +0.01% | +0.34% | no | +0.16% | -0.41% | -0.11% | +0.33% | +0.00% |
| Source ↗ | +0.05% | -2.94% | yes | -1.49% | -3.01% | +0.42% | -1.87% | +0.73% |
| Source ↗ | +0.10% | +1.41% | no | +1.07% | +2.62% | +0.17% | +0.90% | +0.14% |
| Source ↗ | +0.02% | -0.61% | yes | -0.04% | -0.54% | -0.19% | -1.14% | +0.89% |
| Source ↗ | +1.23% | +1.66% | no | +1.76% | -0.08% | +1.38% | +1.67% | +0.01% |
| Source ↗ | -0.66% | -3.17% | no | -3.59% | -6.34% | -0.41% | -2.95% | -0.57% |
| Source ↗ | -0.22% | +0.88% | yes | -0.01% | +2.52% | -0.19% | +1.41% | +0.07% |
| Source ↗ | -0.23% | +0.02% | yes | -0.08% | -2.13% | -0.35% | -0.12% | +0.18% |
| Source ↗ | -0.61% | -0.97% | no | -0.67% | -1.79% | -1.17% | -1.01% | +2.42% |
| Source ↗ | +1.13% | +2.57% | no | +3.07% | +1.92% | +2.66% | +4.07% | -0.01% |
| Source ↗ | -1.13% | +1.72% | yes | -1.05% | +2.81% | -1.16% | +1.52% | +0.78% |
| Source ↗ | +2.29% | -3.29% | yes | -5.06% | -5.46% | +3.11% | -4.22% | -0.21% |
| Source ↗ | -0.24% | +0.05% | yes | +2.06% | -1.10% | -0.05% | -0.59% | +0.47% |
| Source ↗ | +0.53% | +0.28% | no | +0.57% | +6.81% | +0.40% | +1.36% | +0.09% |
| Source ↗ | +0.62% | -0.94% | yes | -0.24% | +2.78% | +0.43% | -2.22% | +0.25% |
| Source ↗ | +0.18% | -0.06% | yes | -0.94% | -7.65% | +0.09% | -0.55% | +0.98% |
| Source ↗ | -0.25% | -2.78% | no | -5.12% | -7.39% | -0.35% | -3.62% | +0.02% |
| Source ↗ | -0.29% | -0.47% | no | -0.55% | +5.56% | -0.65% | +0.45% | +0.35% |
| Source ↗ | +1.94% | +1.59% | no | +4.05% | +4.21% | +1.98% | +3.46% | +0.24% |
| Source ↗ | -0.40% | +0.88% | yes | +4.58% | -2.68% | -0.58% | +0.99% | +0.49% |
| Source ↗ | -0.92% | -0.11% | no | +3.83% | +1.37% | -2.02% | -1.57% | -0.42% |
| Source ↗ | -0.50% | +2.26% | yes | +0.22% | -0.14% | -0.36% | +2.29% | -0.85% |
| Source ↗ | -0.80% | -0.44% | no | +0.17% | +14.97% | -1.07% | -0.37% | +0.76% |
| Source ↗ | -0.36% | +1.77% | yes | +3.04% | +5.90% | -0.23% | +2.55% | +0.42% |
| Source ↗ | +0.05% | +0.50% | no | +7.19% | +5.60% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.38% |
| Source ↗ | -1.42% | -4.13% | no | -4.67% | -1.29% | -1.57% | -4.02% | -0.06% |
| Source ↗ | +0.21% | -1.42% | yes | -4.98% | -2.56% | +0.85% | -2.01% | +0.11% |
| Source ↗ | +0.67% | +4.42% | no | +6.24% | +3.74% | -0.06% | +0.01% | -0.85% |
| Source ↗ | -0.23% | +1.60% | yes | +2.38% | +12.26% | +0.33% | +2.32% | +0.52% |
| Source ↗ | +1.40% | +3.62% | no | +3.08% | +4.15% | +2.99% | +5.44% | -1.12% |
| Source ↗ | +1.97% | -3.52% | yes | -9.42% | +1.36% | +0.33% | -1.89% | -0.03% |
| Source ↗ | -1.06% | -1.45% | no | -2.87% | +17.19% | -1.43% | -2.14% | +1.21% |
| Source ↗ | -0.43% | -1.78% | no | -10.28% | -0.23% | -0.70% | -1.89% | +0.21% |
| Source ↗ | -0.25% | +1.33% | yes | +4.11% | +16.08% | -0.21% | +0.18% | +0.33% |
| Source ↗ | -0.08% | -3.00% | no | -3.64% | -2.22% | -0.17% | -3.69% | -0.15% |
| Source ↗ | -0.39% | +0.29% | yes | -0.14% | -9.37% | -0.45% | +0.80% | +0.85% |
| Source ↗ | -0.63% | +0.62% | yes | +4.09% | +4.47% | -0.47% | -0.45% | +0.75% |
| Source ↗ | -0.12% | -0.66% | no | -0.52% | -1.03% | -0.36% | -1.10% | -0.56% |
| Source ↗ | -0.14% | -0.12% | no | +0.82% | +2.35% | -0.14% | +0.17% | -0.04% |
| Source ↗ | -0.94% | -1.75% | no | +0.52% | +4.95% | -0.86% | -2.15% | +1.39% |
| Source ↗ | -0.97% | -0.76% | no | -6.33% | +4.95% | -1.35% | -0.43% | +1.81% |
| Source ↗ | -0.98% | -0.42% | no | -0.39% | +5.30% | -0.80% | +0.19% | -0.76% |
| Source ↗ | -0.32% | +0.40% | yes | +0.98% | +5.37% | -0.30% | +0.69% | +0.68% |
| Source ↗ | -0.10% | -0.05% | no | -0.57% | +0.21% | -0.40% | -0.33% | +0.02% |
| Source ↗ | -0.92% | +3.87% | yes | +2.53% | +4.49% | -0.51% | +3.72% | +0.24% |
| Source ↗ | -0.72% | -1.17% | no | -2.14% | -2.14% | -0.57% | -0.89% | +0.52% |
| Source ↗ | +0.28% | +0.05% | no | +1.20% | +1.81% | +0.04% | +0.11% | -0.25% |
| Source ↗ | +0.02% | +0.09% | no | +0.16% | +14.16% | -0.20% | -0.10% | -0.25% |
| Source ↗ | -0.47% | +1.04% | yes | +2.49% | +21.98% | -0.31% | +1.09% | -0.72% |
| Source ↗ | -1.90% | +0.36% | yes | +1.39% | -5.41% | -1.31% | +0.50% | +0.24% |
| Source ↗ | +1.26% | +1.62% | no | +3.42% | -4.04% | +1.96% | +2.05% | +0.01% |
| Source ↗ | +0.07% | +0.41% | no | +1.52% | +9.69% | +0.41% | +1.48% | -0.05% |
| Source ↗ | +0.14% | +0.07% | no | +0.13% | +22.66% | +0.54% | +0.36% | -0.43% |
| Source ↗ | +0.07% | +0.58% | no | +0.02% | +1.72% | +0.16% | +1.86% | -0.39% |
| Source ↗ | -1.15% | -1.93% | no | -5.40% | -11.10% | -1.67% | -4.17% | +0.25% |
| Source ↗ | +0.89% | +1.52% | no | -6.77% | -12.82% | +0.93% | +1.78% | +0.18% |
| Source ↗ | -0.46% | -0.29% | no | -0.43% | +1.87% | -1.76% | -1.89% | -0.15% |
| Source ↗ | +0.35% | +0.42% | no | -0.90% | -1.11% | +0.89% | +0.75% | -0.39% |
| Source ↗ | -0.69% | -0.39% | no | +0.72% | -6.89% | -0.27% | +0.40% | -0.07% |
| Source ↗ | -0.54% | -1.42% | no | -3.62% | -9.77% | -0.04% | -0.46% | -0.11% |
| Source ↗ | -0.34% | +0.37% | yes | +9.51% | +12.30% | -0.76% | +0.75% | +0.78% |
| Source ↗ | -0.47% | -0.28% | no | -2.38% | +1.90% | -1.18% | -0.44% | -0.05% |
| Source ↗ | +0.06% | +0.01% | no | -3.85% | +0.41% | -0.62% | -1.40% | -0.25% |
| Source ↗ | +0.08% | +0.13% | no | -6.99% | -10.87% | +0.06% | +0.88% | -0.57% |
| Source ↗ | +0.80% | +0.45% | no | +2.79% | -8.28% | +0.66% | +0.32% | -0.28% |
| Source ↗ | +0.72% | +0.24% | no | -4.00% | -31.48% | +1.58% | +0.05% | -0.97% |
| Source ↗ | -4.03% | +5.25% | yes | +18.72% | +11.90% | -6.91% | +8.10% | +0.05% |
| Source ↗ | -0.33% | -0.01% | no | +12.70% | +59.86% | +0.23% | +1.15% | +0.52% |
| Source ↗ | +0.93% | -0.65% | yes | +1.78% | +21.26% | +0.40% | -0.20% | +0.66% |
| Source ↗ | -0.29% | +0.61% | yes | +1.81% | +4.91% | -1.09% | -0.59% | -0.25% |
| Source ↗ | +0.23% | +0.96% | no | +3.13% | -1.63% | +0.65% | +0.37% | -0.36% |
| Source ↗ | -0.16% | -2.47% | no | +0.82% | +26.24% | – | – | +0.08% |
| Source ↗ | -0.60% | -0.40% | no | -1.72% | -0.32% | – | – | +0.08% |
| Source ↗ | -0.32% | -2.20% | no | -3.27% | +25.43% | – | – | +0.49% |
| Source ↗ | +0.34% | +2.80% | no | +7.59% | +16.10% | – | – | -0.16% |
| Source ↗ | -0.20% | +2.83% | yes | +4.96% | +14.28% | – | – | +0.38% |
| Source ↗ | +0.74% | +0.89% | no | +2.34% | +0.03% | – | – | -0.88% |
| Source ↗ | +0.13% | +0.23% | no | +3.89% | +11.47% | – | – | -0.42% |
BTC/ETH: Bitstamp price at the exact release minute; +5m to +4h use 5-minute candle opens, +24h and +1w use 1-minute opens; the path beyond +4h is interpolated from hourly candle opens. "× typical" compares the move with the average move over the same window starting at the same UTC hour on all days. GBP/USD: Federal Reserve H.10 noon New York fix. Click a release date for the official release.
FAQ
How does Bitcoin react to PCE inflation?
Across 114 scheduled US PCE inflation (Personal Income and Outlays) releases since 2017 with Bitstamp data, BTC's median move in the first hour was -0.15% and the average absolute first-hour move was 0.56%, about 1.1× a typical hour at the same time of day. The first-hour direction had reversed by +4 hours in 36% of cases. BTC was higher one day later 54% of the time. Historical data only, not a forecast.
What time is it released in the UK?
Release date from ALFRED (St. Louis Fed); BEA releases at 08:30 ET. The most recent release was at Wed 30 Sep 2026 13:30 UK time.