US retail sales · 115 releases since 2017
Bitcoin Retail Sales Reaction: BTC After US Retail Sales
BTC moves 1.3× a normal hour after US retail sales; 12% of releases give it a top-10% hour.
BTC typically moves ±0.39% in the first hour after US retail sales (median size), about 1.3× a normal hour, and that first move has reversed by +4h in 32% of releases.
Next release:
The interactive explorer needs JavaScript. The full table of every release is below.
GBP/USD uses the Federal Reserve's daily noon New York fix, so only daily windows are available (no intraday FX data we can license yet).
Dollar index: the Federal Reserve's nominal broad US dollar index (FRED DTWEXBGS), one value per day, so only daily windows are available.
Average path after the release
Distribution of moves
Every selected release
Click a row to chart that release · click a column to sortAt a glance
Advance monthly retail sales from the Census Bureau, out at 8:30am New York time around the middle of the month, is the first hard data on US consumer spending each month.
How much bigger than normal, by market
Median move after a release vs a matched normal window (crypto: same hour on quiet weekdays; SPY/QQQ: opening hour, or 2pm ET for FOMC, on days without the release; GBP/USD: daily fix). Top-10% = share of releases giving a move bigger than 90% of normal ones; 10% would mean no effect.
| Market | × normal | Top-10% | n | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYPE | 2.6× | 20% | 10 | not clearly above noise, thin trading inflates this, small sample, 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles |
| ZEC | 2.0× | 43% | 7 | not clearly above noise, thin trading inflates this, small sample, 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles |
| ETH | 1.4× | 13% | 107 | not clearly above noise |
| QQQ | 1.3× | 8% | 111 | |
| SPY | 1.3× | 12% | 113 | |
| BTC | 1.3× | 12% | 115 | |
| ADA | 1.3× | 14% | 57 | not clearly above noise, thin trading inflates this, 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles |
| GBP/USD | 1.3× | 21% | 115 | |
| LINK | 1.2× | 17% | 70 | not clearly above noise, thin trading inflates this, mostly 2022+ |
| LTC | 1.2× | 13% | 109 | not clearly above noise |
| XRP | 1.1× | 11% | 115 | not clearly above noise |
| SOL | 1.1× | 12% | 48 | not clearly above noise, 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles |
| DOGE | 1.1× | 16% | 44 | not clearly above noise, thin trading inflates this, 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles |
| BNB | 0.0× | 0% | 9 | not clearly above noise, thin trading inflates this, small sample, 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles |
Summary
| Asset / horizon | Median move | % up | Avg absolute move | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) +1h | +0.04% | 53% | 0.54% | 115 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +4h | +0.07% | 54% | 1.31% | 115 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +1d | +0.08% | 53% | 2.28% | 115 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +7d | +0.95% | 54% | 7.25% | 115 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +1h | +0.07% | 55% | 0.69% | 107 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +4h | +0.14% | 53% | 1.59% | 107 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +1d | +0.20% | 54% | 2.79% | 107 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +7d | -0.14% | 50% | 9.13% | 107 |
| GBP/USD next noon NY fix | +0.07% | 52% | 0.50% | 115 |
| GBP/USD +7d | +0.00% | 50% | 1.00% | 114 |
Every past release
BTC/ETH: Bitstamp BTC/USD and ETH/USD price at the exact release minute vs +1h/+4h/+1d/+7d. "Reversed?" = the +4h move has the opposite sign to the +1h move. GBP/USD: first Federal Reserve H.10 noon New York fix after the release vs the last fix before it (for 8:30am ET US releases this is the same day's noon fix). Click a date for the official release.
| Release (UK time) | BTC +1h | BTC +4h | Reversed? | BTC +1d | BTC +7d | ETH +1h | ETH +4h | GBP/USD next noon NY fix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source ↗ | -1.03% | +1.24% | yes | +1.53% | +0.95% | -1.12% | +2.51% | +0.78% |
| Source ↗ | -0.22% | -0.19% | no | +1.38% | +12.63% | -0.26% | -0.42% | -0.21% |
| Source ↗ | -0.20% | +0.35% | yes | +0.16% | +22.04% | -0.37% | +0.33% | +0.44% |
| Source ↗ | +0.10% | +0.55% | no | -1.58% | +1.93% | +0.07% | -0.11% | -0.09% |
| Source ↗ | +0.35% | +2.43% | no | -0.78% | -2.95% | +0.65% | +2.17% | -0.28% |
| Source ↗ | +0.66% | +2.72% | no | +1.42% | -2.97% | +0.31% | +2.34% | -0.30% |
| Source ↗ | +0.04% | +0.51% | no | -3.47% | +4.78% | +0.03% | +0.16% | +1.11% |
| Source ↗ | +0.70% | +1.39% | no | -2.49% | -0.86% | +0.70% | +0.90% | -0.02% |
| Source ↗ | +0.48% | +2.57% | no | +1.85% | -6.74% | +0.34% | +2.05% | +0.07% |
| Source ↗ | -0.50% | -0.05% | no | -0.34% | +0.46% | -1.07% | -1.13% | +0.37% |
| Source ↗ | -0.51% | -0.17% | no | -1.03% | -0.30% | -0.52% | +0.07% | +0.60% |
| Source ↗ | +0.12% | +0.47% | no | +0.90% | -2.11% | +0.25% | -0.79% | +0.33% |
| Source ↗ | -0.18% | -1.39% | no | -0.98% | -5.70% | -0.05% | -4.76% | +0.24% |
| Source ↗ | +0.35% | +0.92% | no | +1.48% | +0.93% | +0.22% | -0.82% | -0.10% |
| Source ↗ | -0.06% | -1.43% | no | -0.91% | -0.55% | +0.26% | -2.47% | -0.62% |
| Source ↗ | +0.05% | +0.61% | no | +1.05% | +8.50% | +0.35% | +0.24% | -0.08% |
| Source ↗ | -0.58% | +0.76% | yes | +0.75% | +11.33% | -0.85% | -0.15% | +0.18% |
| Source ↗ | -0.44% | +0.46% | yes | -0.77% | +4.94% | -0.59% | +0.39% | +0.55% |
| Source ↗ | +0.07% | +0.83% | no | +1.29% | +2.79% | +0.45% | +1.91% | +0.65% |
| Source ↗ | +0.54% | +1.07% | no | +3.79% | +2.72% | +0.82% | +0.96% | +0.26% |
Show the other 95 releases
| Release (UK time) | BTC +1h | BTC +4h | Reversed? | BTC +1d | BTC +7d | ETH +1h | ETH +4h | GBP/USD next noon NY fix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source ↗ | +0.22% | +0.07% | no | -2.29% | -11.97% | +0.03% | -1.07% | +0.22% |
| Source ↗ | -0.31% | -0.01% | no | +1.52% | +9.04% | -0.88% | -1.78% | -0.61% |
| Source ↗ | -0.00% | +0.49% | yes | +1.05% | +0.43% | +0.12% | +0.43% | +0.06% |
| Source ↗ | +0.14% | +2.95% | no | +1.10% | +7.39% | +0.30% | +2.45% | -0.29% |
| Source ↗ | +0.77% | +1.92% | no | -0.97% | +4.33% | +0.64% | +1.15% | +0.11% |
| Source ↗ | -0.49% | +0.47% | yes | +1.00% | +3.66% | -0.66% | +0.81% | -0.22% |
| Source ↗ | -0.24% | -0.71% | no | +0.06% | -5.96% | +0.10% | +0.88% | +0.08% |
| Source ↗ | +2.59% | +3.46% | no | +5.91% | +11.73% | +2.36% | +2.42% | +0.56% |
| Source ↗ | +0.27% | -2.94% | yes | -4.37% | -0.20% | -0.19% | -2.51% | +0.07% |
| Source ↗ | -0.34% | -3.50% | no | -6.96% | -7.49% | -0.35% | -2.65% | -0.39% |
| Source ↗ | +0.52% | +0.07% | no | +0.34% | -1.81% | +1.24% | +1.19% | +0.14% |
| Source ↗ | -0.23% | -0.52% | no | -0.58% | -5.97% | +0.17% | -0.53% | +0.07% |
| Source ↗ | +0.42% | +1.08% | no | +0.08% | +3.68% | +1.10% | +1.40% | +1.92% |
| Source ↗ | +0.26% | +0.94% | no | +2.34% | +1.13% | +0.23% | +0.04% | -0.42% |
| Source ↗ | -0.51% | +0.39% | yes | -0.13% | +21.54% | -0.42% | -0.15% | +0.07% |
| Source ↗ | +1.02% | +0.90% | no | +0.08% | +1.00% | +0.52% | +0.73% | -0.62% |
| Source ↗ | +0.13% | -0.05% | yes | -0.89% | -11.14% | +0.17% | -0.01% | +0.43% |
| Source ↗ | -0.24% | +0.13% | yes | +0.24% | -2.42% | -0.01% | +0.31% | -0.18% |
| Source ↗ | +0.45% | +0.28% | no | +2.37% | +20.61% | +0.26% | +0.35% | +0.52% |
| Source ↗ | +0.14% | -0.11% | yes | -1.36% | +1.23% | +0.25% | +0.23% | -0.26% |
| Source ↗ | -0.48% | -2.05% | no | -1.33% | -8.68% | -0.65% | -2.79% | -0.91% |
| Source ↗ | +1.23% | -1.76% | yes | +0.72% | +14.06% | +0.77% | -2.50% | -0.94% |
| Source ↗ | -0.28% | +0.12% | yes | +7.76% | +5.76% | -0.46% | -0.29% | -1.04% |
| Source ↗ | +0.73% | -1.55% | yes | -2.26% | +6.71% | +0.75% | -1.95% | +0.86% |
| Source ↗ | -0.03% | -0.70% | no | -3.16% | -4.26% | +0.05% | -0.31% | -1.63% |
| Source ↗ | -0.46% | -0.53% | no | -0.60% | -0.49% | -0.89% | -0.94% | -0.01% |
| Source ↗ | +0.39% | -1.65% | yes | -2.28% | -4.44% | +0.53% | -1.92% | -1.20% |
| Source ↗ | -0.28% | -1.46% | no | -1.43% | -4.45% | -0.52% | -5.57% | -0.80% |
| Source ↗ | +0.07% | -0.97% | yes | -0.51% | -9.06% | -0.09% | -1.69% | -0.50% |
| Source ↗ | +0.76% | -0.60% | yes | -1.01% | +13.57% | +0.80% | -0.55% | +0.25% |
| Source ↗ | +1.07% | -0.01% | yes | +0.12% | -3.39% | +1.39% | -0.74% | +0.38% |
| Source ↗ | +0.01% | -1.74% | yes | -2.12% | -4.43% | -0.15% | -2.61% | +1.61% |
| Source ↗ | +0.50% | -2.65% | yes | -1.99% | +3.72% | +0.43% | -2.03% | -0.15% |
| Source ↗ | -0.29% | -0.95% | no | +0.97% | +3.53% | -0.14% | +0.27% | +0.24% |
| Source ↗ | -0.72% | -0.65% | no | -3.18% | -11.25% | -1.48% | -0.99% | +0.34% |
| Source ↗ | -0.05% | +1.76% | yes | +1.36% | -9.29% | -0.21% | +2.05% | -0.39% |
| Source ↗ | +0.19% | -1.20% | yes | +2.50% | +1.84% | -0.21% | -2.93% | -0.08% |
| Source ↗ | +0.56% | +0.24% | no | -0.23% | -5.89% | +1.54% | +1.29% | -0.11% |
| Source ↗ | +0.63% | +1.86% | no | +3.44% | +6.59% | +0.55% | +0.89% | +0.53% |
| Source ↗ | +0.23% | +0.21% | no | -0.87% | -9.03% | +0.52% | +0.14% | -0.38% |
| Source ↗ | -1.09% | -2.52% | no | -4.43% | +4.58% | -1.62% | -3.24% | -0.79% |
| Source ↗ | +1.51% | +2.41% | no | +0.34% | +3.16% | +1.60% | +3.10% | -0.46% |
| Source ↗ | +0.41% | -0.04% | yes | -2.92% | -25.58% | +0.24% | -1.58% | -0.30% |
| Source ↗ | +0.06% | +1.39% | no | -3.02% | -18.75% | +0.29% | +3.83% | +0.45% |
| Source ↗ | +0.29% | +0.12% | no | -2.76% | -12.29% | +0.36% | +1.03% | -0.07% |
| Source ↗ | +0.77% | +0.83% | no | -0.27% | -0.03% | +0.28% | +0.93% | +0.19% |
| Source ↗ | +0.30% | +1.01% | no | +1.80% | -2.16% | +0.12% | +0.21% | -0.45% |
| Source ↗ | -0.77% | -3.86% | no | +0.53% | -13.89% | -0.83% | -4.52% | -0.66% |
| Source ↗ | +2.95% | +4.06% | no | +16.50% | +19.84% | +3.48% | +4.66% | +0.51% |
| Source ↗ | +0.18% | +3.46% | no | +5.63% | +13.14% | +0.16% | +2.52% | +0.38% |
| Source ↗ | -0.05% | -0.26% | no | -0.23% | +13.99% | +0.05% | -0.41% | +0.11% |
| Source ↗ | +0.14% | +0.99% | no | -0.77% | -3.81% | +0.41% | +1.05% | +0.89% |
| Source ↗ | -0.27% | +0.97% | yes | +0.60% | -0.77% | -0.29% | +3.88% | +0.20% |
| Source ↗ | -0.07% | +0.45% | yes | +1.00% | +4.66% | -0.12% | +0.25% | +0.28% |
| Source ↗ | +0.31% | -0.23% | yes | -0.04% | +1.52% | +0.46% | +0.01% | +0.34% |
| Source ↗ | +0.44% | -0.20% | yes | -0.34% | -3.75% | +0.45% | -0.61% | -0.53% |
| Source ↗ | +0.08% | +0.03% | no | +4.01% | +3.04% | +0.13% | -0.04% | -0.75% |
| Source ↗ | -0.18% | +1.75% | yes | -3.16% | +24.87% | +0.27% | +1.33% | -2.13% |
| Source ↗ | +0.58% | +0.38% | no | -0.07% | -5.12% | +1.41% | +2.77% | -0.09% |
| Source ↗ | -0.18% | -0.24% | no | +1.80% | -3.74% | -0.03% | +1.23% | +0.35% |
| Source ↗ | +0.03% | +0.69% | no | -1.12% | -0.71% | -0.24% | +0.32% | +1.64% |
| Source ↗ | -1.50% | -2.39% | no | -2.13% | -18.03% | -2.06% | -2.21% | +0.17% |
| Source ↗ | -0.08% | -0.06% | no | +0.42% | -0.76% | -0.33% | -0.15% | +0.92% |
| Source ↗ | +0.01% | -0.20% | yes | -0.49% | -1.26% | +0.00% | -0.35% | +0.85% |
| Source ↗ | -0.90% | -0.48% | no | +0.91% | -0.37% | -0.41% | +0.45% | +0.36% |
| Source ↗ | -1.26% | -6.09% | no | -12.20% | -5.93% | -2.35% | -6.09% | -0.92% |
| Source ↗ | +1.07% | +1.61% | no | +4.43% | +18.49% | +0.79% | +1.15% | -0.61% |
| Source ↗ | -0.99% | +0.07% | yes | -1.27% | -2.14% | -0.92% | +3.17% | -0.33% |
| Source ↗ | +0.40% | +0.02% | no | +0.05% | +4.02% | +0.52% | +0.28% | -0.25% |
| Source ↗ | +0.08% | +0.12% | no | +0.78% | +3.25% | +0.18% | +0.16% | +0.65% |
| Source ↗ | -0.05% | +0.36% | yes | +0.59% | +9.61% | -0.29% | +0.62% | -0.56% |
| Source ↗ | -0.38% | -2.55% | no | -3.49% | +24.53% | +0.02% | -2.44% | -0.51% |
| Source ↗ | -0.37% | +1.94% | yes | +2.53% | -18.38% | -0.63% | +2.01% | -2.01% |
| Source ↗ | -0.22% | -0.08% | no | +0.36% | -0.20% | -0.98% | -0.72% | +0.11% |
| Source ↗ | -0.45% | +0.37% | yes | +0.87% | +3.79% | -1.22% | +1.78% | -0.15% |
| Source ↗ | +0.42% | +3.46% | no | +0.18% | +5.13% | +0.97% | +6.26% | -0.42% |
| Source ↗ | -0.01% | +0.11% | yes | +1.31% | +16.06% | -0.04% | -0.07% | +0.15% |
| Source ↗ | -1.86% | -1.93% | no | +0.39% | +3.49% | -1.98% | -2.30% | -0.34% |
| Source ↗ | -0.14% | -1.98% | no | -4.32% | -6.64% | -0.71% | -0.73% | -0.61% |
| Source ↗ | -1.76% | -1.22% | no | +0.67% | +11.31% | -1.94% | -1.26% | +0.54% |
| Source ↗ | -0.69% | -0.14% | no | -6.38% | +4.22% | -0.65% | -1.34% | -0.29% |
| Source ↗ | -0.63% | +0.30% | yes | +4.72% | +17.93% | -1.11% | +1.67% | +0.45% |
| Source ↗ | -1.13% | -2.60% | no | +3.00% | -15.05% | -1.22% | -2.85% | +1.08% |
| Source ↗ | -1.93% | -0.76% | no | +5.85% | -0.29% | -3.46% | -0.82% | +0.56% |
| Source ↗ | +1.41% | +0.52% | no | +4.19% | +15.40% | +0.28% | -1.42% | +0.28% |
| Source ↗ | +0.68% | +1.54% | no | +1.83% | +1.01% | +4.03% | +1.01% | +0.99% |
| Source ↗ | +2.72% | +12.94% | no | +10.29% | +10.97% | +2.45% | +12.98% | +1.34% |
| Source ↗ | -1.22% | -0.08% | no | -0.18% | -3.02% | – | – | -0.87% |
| Source ↗ | -0.96% | -3.97% | no | -12.00% | +19.22% | – | – | +1.22% |
| Source ↗ | -1.11% | -6.20% | no | -13.94% | +0.06% | – | – | +0.54% |
| Source ↗ | +0.08% | -2.27% | yes | -2.61% | +8.18% | – | – | -0.04% |
| Source ↗ | +0.80% | +1.49% | no | +1.99% | +7.89% | – | – | +0.07% |
| Source ↗ | +0.05% | -0.34% | yes | -2.26% | -15.60% | – | – | +0.44% |
| Source ↗ | -0.02% | -0.39% | no | +1.15% | +11.04% | – | – | +0.00% |
| Source ↗ | +0.56% | +2.64% | no | +4.20% | +11.68% | – | – | -0.11% |
BTC/ETH: Bitstamp price at the exact release minute; +5m to +4h use 5-minute candle opens, +24h and +1w use 1-minute opens; the path beyond +4h is interpolated from hourly candle opens. "× typical" compares the move with the average move over the same window starting at the same UTC hour on all days. GBP/USD: Federal Reserve H.10 noon New York fix. Click a release date for the official release.
FAQ
How does Bitcoin react to US retail sales?
Across 115 scheduled US retail sales releases since 2017 with Bitstamp data, BTC's median move in the first hour was +0.04% and the average absolute first-hour move was 0.54%, about 1.1× a typical hour at the same time of day. The first-hour direction had reversed by +4 hours in 32% of cases. BTC was higher one day later 53% of the time. Historical data only, not a forecast.
What time is it released in the UK?
Release date from ALFRED (St. Louis Fed); Census releases at 08:30 ET. The most recent release was at Thu 15 Oct 2026 13:30 UK time.