FOMC rate decision · 77 releases since 2017
FOMC Bitcoin Price Impact: BTC Reaction to Every Fed Decision
BTC moves 1.6× a normal hour after FOMC; 27% of releases give it a top-10% hour.
BTC typically moves ±0.48% in the first hour after FOMC rate decision (median size), about 1.6× a normal hour, and that first move has reversed by +4h in 22% of releases.
Every FOMC rate decision release, year by year, with recaps of the big ones →
Next release:
The interactive explorer needs JavaScript. The full table of every release is below.
GBP/USD uses the Federal Reserve's daily noon New York fix, so only daily windows are available (no intraday FX data we can license yet).
Dollar index: the Federal Reserve's nominal broad US dollar index (FRED DTWEXBGS), one value per day, so only daily windows are available.
Average path after the release
Distribution of moves
Every selected release
Click a row to chart that release · click a column to sortAt a glance
The Federal Open Market Committee sets US interest rates eight times a year. The statement lands at 2pm New York time and the press conference follows 30 minutes later, so the first hour often holds two separate reactions.
How much bigger than normal, by market
Median move after a release vs a matched normal window (crypto: same hour on quiet weekdays; SPY/QQQ: opening hour, or 2pm ET for FOMC, on days without the release; GBP/USD: daily fix). Top-10% = share of releases giving a move bigger than 90% of normal ones; 10% would mean no effect.
| Market | × normal | Top-10% | n | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA | 3.5× | 49% | 39 | thin trading inflates this, 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles |
| LINK | 2.8× | 42% | 48 | thin trading inflates this, mostly 2022+ |
| SPY | 2.6× | 53% | 76 | |
| QQQ | 2.5× | 58% | 74 | |
| DOGE | 2.3× | 30% | 30 | thin trading inflates this, 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles |
| SOL | 2.3× | 42% | 33 | 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles |
| ETH | 2.1× | 32% | 72 | |
| XRP | 2.1× | 30% | 77 | |
| GBP/USD | 1.9× | 23% | 77 | |
| LTC | 1.7× | 25% | 73 | |
| BTC | 1.6× | 27% | 77 | |
| HYPE | 0.9× | 14% | 7 | not clearly above noise, thin trading inflates this, small sample, 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles |
| BNB | 0.0× | 0% | 6 | not clearly above noise, thin trading inflates this, small sample, 2022+ only, misses earlier cycles |
Summary
| Asset / horizon | Median move | % up | Avg absolute move | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) +1h | +0.02% | 51% | 0.85% | 77 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +4h | +0.18% | 57% | 1.58% | 77 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +1d | -0.05% | 49% | 3.30% | 77 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +7d | +0.80% | 53% | 8.03% | 77 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +1h | +0.21% | 60% | 1.18% | 72 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +4h | +0.08% | 51% | 1.96% | 72 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +1d | -0.43% | 49% | 4.13% | 72 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +7d | -0.17% | 50% | 10.58% | 72 |
| GBP/USD next noon NY fix | -0.04% | 49% | 0.65% | 77 |
| GBP/USD +7d | -0.62% | 32% | 1.11% | 77 |
Summary stats use scheduled releases only (3 unscheduled emergency statements are listed in the table but excluded).
Every past release
BTC/ETH: Bitstamp BTC/USD and ETH/USD price at the exact release minute vs +1h/+4h/+1d/+7d. "Reversed?" = the +4h move has the opposite sign to the +1h move. GBP/USD: first Federal Reserve H.10 noon New York fix after the release vs the last fix before it (for 8:30am ET US releases this is the same day's noon fix). Click a date for the official release.
| Release (UK time) | BTC +1h | BTC +4h | Reversed? | BTC +1d | BTC +7d | ETH +1h | ETH +4h | GBP/USD next noon NY fix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source ↗Recap → | -0.17% | +0.30% | yes | +1.21% | +11.39% | +0.27% | +0.53% | -0.77% |
| Source ↗ | +0.37% | -0.62% | yes | +0.96% | +0.80% | +0.28% | -0.88% | +1.32% |
| Source ↗ | -0.89% | -2.83% | no | -5.35% | -10.21% | -1.05% | -2.82% | -1.28% |
| Source ↗ | -0.87% | -0.32% | no | +0.11% | +6.97% | -1.91% | -1.32% | +0.64% |
| Source ↗ | -0.71% | -0.50% | no | -2.48% | -1.21% | -1.05% | -0.07% | +0.29% |
| Source ↗ | -0.16% | -0.19% | no | -6.81% | -18.07% | +0.06% | +0.11% | +0.06% |
| Source ↗ | +0.50% | +0.02% | no | -1.97% | -7.27% | +0.28% | -1.02% | +0.66% |
| Source ↗ | -0.94% | -0.24% | no | -3.94% | -7.13% | -2.38% | -1.44% | -0.72% |
| Source ↗ | -0.38% | +0.33% | yes | +1.68% | -1.63% | +0.27% | +1.92% | -0.80% |
| Source ↗ | -1.10% | -0.41% | no | -0.05% | -1.91% | -1.84% | -1.14% | -0.41% |
| Source ↗ | -0.75% | +0.72% | yes | +0.18% | +2.98% | -0.79% | +1.21% | -0.04% |
| Source ↗ | +0.28% | +0.88% | no | +4.91% | +7.22% | +0.52% | +0.33% | -0.43% |
| Source ↗ | +1.81% | +1.85% | no | -0.11% | +2.91% | +1.15% | +0.77% | +0.03% |
| Source ↗ | +0.72% | +0.64% | no | +2.71% | -5.95% | +0.38% | +0.50% | +0.14% |
| Source ↗Recap → | -1.88% | -3.43% | no | -5.65% | -5.80% | -3.38% | -5.67% | -1.31% |
| Source ↗ | -0.06% | -0.97% | no | +0.29% | +16.31% | +0.25% | +0.09% | -0.62% |
| Source ↗Recap → | +1.00% | +0.31% | no | +6.17% | +5.24% | +1.21% | +1.02% | +0.61% |
| Source ↗ | -0.22% | -2.54% | no | -5.25% | -16.61% | +0.06% | -2.35% | -0.53% |
| Source ↗ | -1.39% | -1.84% | no | -4.19% | -6.79% | -1.42% | -1.61% | -0.62% |
| Source ↗Recap → | +2.65% | +0.81% | no | +3.24% | +9.12% | +2.31% | +1.50% | +0.15% |
Show the other 60 releases
| Release (UK time) | BTC +1h | BTC +4h | Reversed? | BTC +1d | BTC +7d | ETH +1h | ETH +4h | GBP/USD next noon NY fix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source ↗Recap → | +2.06% | +5.70% | no | +2.48% | +7.10% | +2.89% | +6.09% | -0.34% |
| Source ↗ | -0.35% | -2.02% | no | -1.52% | +0.30% | -0.57% | -2.24% | -0.05% |
| Source ↗ | +1.45% | +2.03% | no | +1.74% | +4.81% | +1.65% | +2.11% | +1.92% |
| Source ↗ | +0.25% | +2.65% | no | +0.77% | +2.32% | +0.66% | +2.13% | +0.40% |
| Source ↗ | -0.11% | -0.32% | no | -2.05% | -3.72% | +0.15% | -0.21% | -0.73% |
| Source ↗ | +0.42% | +0.73% | no | -0.16% | -0.44% | +0.73% | +0.71% | -0.46% |
| Source ↗ | -0.40% | -3.43% | no | -3.42% | +15.64% | -0.47% | -5.01% | +0.52% |
| Source ↗ | -0.42% | +1.32% | yes | +0.98% | -3.67% | +0.72% | +0.88% | +0.26% |
| Source ↗Recap → | -1.77% | -5.05% | no | -0.84% | -1.19% | -0.98% | -3.83% | +0.74% |
| Source ↗ | +1.40% | +2.85% | no | +4.32% | -0.77% | +2.43% | +3.64% | -0.39% |
| Source ↗Recap → | -2.35% | -2.10% | no | -4.52% | -7.84% | -1.95% | -1.54% | -1.63% |
| Source ↗Recap → | +0.12% | -1.37% | yes | -1.01% | -17.15% | +0.25% | -2.89% | -2.48% |
| Source ↗ | -0.94% | -6.87% | no | -3.76% | -2.40% | -1.18% | -10.12% | -0.54% |
| Source ↗Recap → | +4.29% | +4.88% | no | +11.04% | +8.47% | +5.50% | +7.16% | +0.82% |
| Source ↗Recap → | +2.04% | +5.23% | no | -0.20% | -3.93% | +5.27% | +10.10% | +2.36% |
| Source ↗ | +1.49% | +1.78% | no | -5.74% | -23.58% | +2.89% | +2.84% | -1.23% |
| Source ↗Recap → | -1.17% | +1.62% | yes | +0.98% | +4.34% | -1.15% | +2.28% | +0.48% |
| Source ↗ | -1.05% | -3.82% | no | -4.64% | -1.28% | -1.66% | -6.72% | -0.97% |
| Source ↗ | +1.76% | +2.04% | no | +0.36% | +1.60% | +4.27% | +5.13% | +0.84% |
| Source ↗ | +1.08% | +1.07% | no | -2.59% | +9.77% | +2.31% | +1.26% | -1.21% |
| Source ↗ | +0.06% | +0.37% | no | +4.08% | -4.50% | -0.14% | +0.66% | +0.56% |
| Source ↗Recap → | +4.00% | +3.09% | no | +1.82% | +1.23% | +2.70% | +1.94% | +0.59% |
| Source ↗ | -1.14% | -1.04% | no | -3.92% | -14.24% | -0.21% | -0.55% | -1.37% |
| Source ↗ | +0.21% | +0.01% | no | -3.92% | +4.45% | +0.43% | +1.64% | +0.28% |
| Source ↗Recap → | +3.70% | +5.16% | no | +6.54% | +1.00% | +1.82% | +1.87% | +0.36% |
| Source ↗Recap → | +3.48% | +2.86% | no | +9.97% | +25.09% | +3.60% | +2.34% | +0.28% |
| Source ↗ | +0.76% | +3.78% | no | +12.93% | +14.50% | +0.73% | +2.59% | +0.79% |
| Source ↗ | +1.31% | +4.14% | no | +3.44% | +7.77% | +0.76% | +1.90% | +0.35% |
| Source ↗ | -0.25% | -0.21% | no | -1.55% | -5.27% | -0.87% | -0.75% | -0.19% |
| Source ↗ | +0.33% | +1.07% | no | -1.16% | +4.50% | +0.34% | +0.81% | +0.47% |
| Source ↗ | +0.63% | +0.81% | no | -4.12% | -3.89% | +0.89% | +1.62% | -0.96% |
| Source ↗ | -0.92% | +1.70% | yes | -1.70% | +6.49% | -0.28% | -0.06% | +1.39% |
| Source ↗Recap →unscheduled | +8.06% | +6.35% | no | +15.17% | +8.83% | +8.06% | +5.19% | -2.14% |
| Source ↗Recap →unscheduled | +14.71% | +1.08% | no | -5.31% | +14.67% | +11.05% | +0.56% | -1.03% |
| Source ↗unscheduled | +0.06% | -0.27% | yes | -0.27% | -8.04% | -0.19% | -0.92% | +0.28% |
| Source ↗ | +0.20% | -0.25% | yes | +1.36% | +3.47% | +0.28% | -0.19% | +0.72% |
| Source ↗ | +0.13% | +0.14% | no | +0.27% | -4.37% | -0.25% | +0.07% | -0.33% |
| Source ↗ | +0.51% | +0.35% | no | +1.57% | +2.03% | +0.77% | -0.02% | +0.52% |
| Source ↗ | -0.06% | +0.11% | yes | -1.48% | -17.76% | -0.40% | -0.56% | +0.02% |
| Source ↗Recap → | -0.48% | +0.18% | yes | +0.72% | +17.39% | -0.31% | -0.07% | -0.61% |
| Source ↗ | -0.29% | +1.08% | yes | +2.42% | +46.96% | -0.33% | +0.49% | +0.59% |
| Source ↗ | -0.73% | -0.96% | no | +0.77% | +9.82% | -0.91% | -1.83% | -0.45% |
| Source ↗ | +0.22% | +0.23% | no | -0.92% | +0.29% | +0.14% | +0.51% | -0.89% |
| Source ↗ | -0.17% | -0.05% | no | -1.19% | -2.20% | -0.48% | -0.40% | +0.56% |
| Source ↗ | -0.66% | -2.14% | no | +6.75% | -0.92% | -1.89% | -4.32% | -0.15% |
| Source ↗ | -0.03% | -0.09% | no | -1.30% | -14.07% | +0.36% | -0.17% | -1.05% |
| Source ↗ | -0.21% | -0.83% | no | -0.30% | -0.91% | -0.75% | -2.28% | -0.59% |
| Source ↗ | -0.03% | -0.83% | no | -0.41% | -17.21% | -0.60% | -2.42% | -0.65% |
| Source ↗ | +0.10% | -0.66% | yes | +4.57% | +6.78% | +0.34% | -1.22% | -0.34% |
| Source ↗ | -0.06% | +1.22% | yes | +6.32% | +2.15% | +0.08% | +1.40% | -0.30% |
| Source ↗ | +0.43% | +0.63% | no | -2.17% | -10.52% | +0.86% | +1.24% | +0.24% |
| Source ↗ | +0.24% | +0.72% | no | -10.07% | -17.40% | -0.48% | -0.10% | +0.40% |
| Source ↗ | +1.70% | +2.10% | no | +2.20% | +5.47% | +4.03% | +3.00% | +0.56% |
| Source ↗ | -0.30% | -0.45% | no | +5.78% | +17.02% | +0.08% | -0.16% | -1.43% |
| Source ↗ | +0.02% | -1.29% | yes | -7.71% | +2.27% | +0.17% | -0.76% | +0.09% |
| Source ↗ | -0.08% | -0.34% | no | +4.33% | +9.42% | – | – | +0.13% |
| Source ↗ | +0.24% | -4.25% | yes | -13.58% | +4.95% | – | – | -0.31% |
| Source ↗ | +0.14% | +0.59% | no | +7.49% | +18.77% | – | – | -0.05% |
| Source ↗ | -0.13% | +0.13% | yes | -2.33% | -18.75% | – | – | +1.21% |
| Source ↗ | +0.10% | +0.82% | no | +2.63% | +8.49% | – | – | -0.81% |
BTC/ETH: Bitstamp price at the exact release minute; +5m to +4h use 5-minute candle opens, +24h and +1w use 1-minute opens; the path beyond +4h is interpolated from hourly candle opens. "× typical" compares the move with the average move over the same window starting at the same UTC hour on all days. GBP/USD: Federal Reserve H.10 noon New York fix. Click a release date for the official release.
FAQ
What is the FOMC impact on the Bitcoin price?
Across 77 scheduled FOMC rate decision releases since 2017 with Bitstamp data, BTC's median move in the first hour was +0.02% and the average absolute first-hour move was 0.85%, about 2.0× a typical hour at the same time of day. The first-hour direction had reversed by +4 hours in 22% of cases. BTC was higher one day later 49% of the time. Historical data only, not a forecast.
What time is it released in the UK?
Statement page: 'For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT'. The most recent release was at Wed 16 Sep 2026 19:00 UK time.