US GDP (advance estimate) · 39 releases since 2017
Bitcoin GDP Reaction: BTC After US Advance GDP
BTC typically moves 0.52% in the first hour after US GDP (advance estimate), about 1.1× a normal hour, and that first move has reversed by +4h in 41% of releases.
Next release: · GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026 data
The interactive explorer needs JavaScript. The full table of every release is below.
GBP/USD uses the Federal Reserve's daily noon New York fix, so only daily windows are available (no intraday FX data we can license yet).
Dollar index: the Federal Reserve's nominal broad US dollar index (FRED DTWEXBGS), one value per day, so only daily windows are available.
Average path after the release
Distribution of moves
Every selected release
Click a row to chart that release · click a column to sortAt a glance
The advance GDP estimate is the Bureau of Economic Analysis' first read on US growth for the previous quarter, out at 8:30am New York time a month after the quarter ends. Only the advance estimate is tracked here; later revisions rarely move markets.
Summary
| Asset / horizon | Median move | % up | Avg absolute move | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) +1h | -0.04% | 49% | 0.52% | 39 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +4h | +0.01% | 54% | 1.01% | 39 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +1d | +0.15% | 59% | 2.20% | 39 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +7d | +2.08% | 64% | 5.99% | 39 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +1h | -0.00% | 47% | 0.61% | 36 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +4h | -0.17% | 42% | 1.15% | 36 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +1d | +0.76% | 61% | 2.25% | 36 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +7d | +0.88% | 69% | 6.39% | 36 |
| GBP/USD next noon NY fix | -0.07% | 44% | 0.46% | 39 |
| GBP/USD +7d | -0.22% | 41% | 0.93% | 39 |
Every past release
BTC/ETH: Bitstamp BTC/USD and ETH/USD price at the exact release minute vs +1h/+4h/+1d/+7d. "Reversed?" = the +4h move has the opposite sign to the +1h move. GBP/USD: first Federal Reserve H.10 noon New York fix after the release vs the last fix before it (for 8:30am ET US releases this is the same day's noon fix). Click a date for the official release.
| Release (UK time) | BTC +1h | BTC +4h | Reversed? | BTC +1d | BTC +7d | ETH +1h | ETH +4h | GBP/USD next noon NY fix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source ↗ 2nd Quarter 2026 | -0.09% | +0.02% | yes | -1.74% | -0.52% | +0.15% | +0.04% | +1.32% |
| Source ↗ 1st Quarter 2026 | -0.23% | +0.01% | yes | +1.89% | +6.20% | -0.40% | -0.21% | +0.64% |
| Source ↗ 4th Quarter and Year 2025 | -0.32% | -0.27% | no | +1.53% | -1.76% | -0.34% | -0.13% | +0.40% |
| Source ↗ 3rd Quarter 2025 (Initial Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary) | -0.18% | -0.09% | no | -0.63% | +0.23% | -0.55% | -0.64% | +0.21% |
| Source ↗ 2nd Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) | -0.18% | +0.05% | yes | +0.66% | -3.13% | -0.50% | +0.65% | -0.49% |
| Source ↗ 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) | -0.52% | -1.34% | no | +1.30% | +2.08% | -1.54% | -1.96% | -0.40% |
| Source ↗ 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Advance Estimate) | -0.33% | -0.10% | no | -0.37% | -6.62% | -0.37% | +0.22% | +0.14% |
| Source ↗ Third Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) | -0.38% | -0.02% | no | +0.12% | +3.40% | +0.69% | +0.61% | +0.05% |
| Source ↗ Second Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) | +0.14% | +1.13% | no | +4.92% | +0.83% | -0.48% | -0.32% | -0.32% |
| Source ↗ First Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) | -1.41% | +0.12% | yes | +0.32% | -8.39% | -0.83% | +0.87% | +0.48% |
| Source ↗ Fourth Quarter and Year 2023 (Advance Estimate) | +0.36% | -0.40% | yes | +3.37% | +5.78% | +0.21% | -0.69% | -0.42% |
| Source ↗ Third Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) | +0.09% | -0.72% | yes | -0.88% | +3.23% | +0.13% | -2.28% | -0.22% |
| Source ↗ Second Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) | -0.04% | -0.68% | no | -0.68% | -1.29% | +0.00% | -0.45% | -0.46% |
| Source ↗ First Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate) | -0.36% | +0.48% | yes | +1.17% | +0.71% | -0.12% | +0.98% | -0.12% |
| Source ↗ Fourth Quarter and Year 2022 (Advance Estimate) | +0.49% | -0.22% | yes | -0.62% | +3.19% | +0.52% | -1.00% | -0.03% |
| Source ↗ Third Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) | +0.48% | -0.49% | yes | -2.34% | -2.48% | +1.08% | -0.66% | -0.35% |
| Source ↗ Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) | +0.43% | +3.73% | no | +2.67% | -0.83% | +0.91% | +6.22% | +0.82% |
| Source ↗ First Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) | -0.66% | +0.01% | yes | -1.88% | -0.59% | -0.48% | -0.40% | -0.83% |
| Source ↗ Fourth Quarter and Year 2021 (Advance Estimate) | +0.51% | -1.11% | yes | -1.03% | -0.11% | +1.02% | -0.58% | -0.97% |
| Source ↗ Third Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) | +0.84% | +0.44% | no | +0.61% | +1.07% | +1.16% | +0.89% | +0.47% |
| Source ↗ Second Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update | +0.38% | +0.32% | no | -2.38% | -4.98% | +0.83% | +1.70% | +0.59% |
| Source ↗ First Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) | -0.79% | -1.73% | no | +0.15% | +6.29% | -0.45% | -1.31% | +0.28% |
| Source ↗ 4th Quarter and Year 2020 (Advance Estimate) | +1.62% | +3.10% | no | +19.65% | +19.73% | +1.81% | +2.07% | +0.28% |
| Source ↗ Third Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) | +1.30% | +4.53% | no | +2.72% | +13.79% | +1.16% | +3.23% | -0.82% |
| Source ↗ 2nd Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update | +0.11% | +0.17% | no | +2.23% | +7.20% | -0.13% | -0.11% | +0.47% |
| Source ↗ 1st Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) | +2.73% | +3.57% | no | +8.62% | +13.92% | +0.05% | +1.78% | -0.07% |
| Source ↗ Fourth Quarter and Year 2019 (Advance Estimate) | -0.48% | +0.92% | yes | -1.25% | +4.47% | -0.01% | +2.06% | +0.72% |
| Source ↗ Third Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) | -0.33% | -0.86% | no | +2.45% | +2.39% | -0.34% | -1.38% | -0.26% |
| Source ↗ Second Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update | -0.27% | -0.32% | no | -4.17% | +7.11% | -0.57% | -0.63% | -0.67% |
| Source ↗ First Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate) | +0.21% | -1.75% | yes | -0.14% | +11.14% | +0.57% | -1.23% | +0.22% |
| Source ↗ Fourth Quarter and Annual 2018 (Initial Estimate) | +0.07% | -0.32% | yes | -0.09% | +1.23% | +0.04% | -0.28% | -0.33% |
| Source ↗ 3rd quarter 2018 (advance estimate) | +0.03% | +0.12% | no | +0.04% | -1.43% | +0.12% | -0.11% | -0.55% |
| Source ↗ and comprehensive update | -0.23% | +3.79% | yes | +3.92% | -6.77% | -0.10% | +1.21% | -0.01% |
| Source ↗ 1st quarter 2018 (advance estimate) | -1.46% | -0.61% | no | +0.02% | +4.20% | -2.17% | -0.66% | -1.02% |
| Source ↗ 4th quarter and annual 2017 (advance estimate) | +0.91% | +3.85% | no | +4.05% | -19.02% | +1.47% | +3.35% | -0.60% |
| Source ↗ 3rd quarter 2017 (advance estimate) | -0.60% | +0.17% | yes | -1.51% | +26.18% | -0.65% | -0.50% | -0.55% |
| Source ↗ and annual update | -0.04% | -0.79% | no | -3.34% | +2.09% | – | – | +0.45% |
| Source ↗ 1st quarter 2017 (advance estimate) | +0.53% | +0.75% | no | +0.36% | +19.25% | – | – | +0.38% |
| Source ↗ 4th quarter and annual 2016 (advance estimate) | +0.18% | +0.39% | no | +0.17% | +9.82% | – | – | -0.38% |
BTC/ETH: Bitstamp price at the exact release minute; +5m to +4h use 5-minute candle opens, +24h and +1w use 1-minute opens; the path beyond +4h is interpolated from hourly candle opens. "× typical" compares the move with the average move over the same window starting at the same UTC hour on all days. GBP/USD: Federal Reserve H.10 noon New York fix. Click a release date for the official release.
FAQ
How does Bitcoin react to US GDP?
Across 39 scheduled US GDP (advance estimate) releases since 2017 with Bitstamp data, BTC's median move in the first hour was -0.04% and the average absolute first-hour move was 0.52%, about 1.1× a typical hour at the same time of day. The first-hour direction had reversed by +4 hours in 41% of cases. BTC was higher one day later 59% of the time. Historical data only, not a forecast.
What time is it released in the UK?
BEA news release; 08:30 ET. The most recent release was at Thu 30 Jul 2026 13:30 UK time.