US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) · 117 releases since 2017
Bitcoin NFP Reaction: BTC After US Jobs Reports
BTC typically moves 0.71% in the first hour after US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), about 1.4× a normal hour, and that first move has reversed by +4h in 31% of releases.
Next release: · October 2026 data
The interactive explorer needs JavaScript. The full table of every release is below.
GBP/USD uses the Federal Reserve's daily noon New York fix, so only daily windows are available (no intraday FX data we can license yet).
Dollar index: the Federal Reserve's nominal broad US dollar index (FRED DTWEXBGS), one value per day, so only daily windows are available.
Average path after the release
Distribution of moves
Every selected release
Click a row to chart that release · click a column to sortAt a glance
Nonfarm Payrolls is the monthly US jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, out at 8:30am New York time on the first Friday of most months. It moves rate expectations almost as much as CPI, and it lands in a quiet hour for crypto.
Summary
| Asset / horizon | Median move | % up | Avg absolute move | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) +1h | +0.09% | 58% | 0.71% | 117 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +4h | +0.05% | 51% | 1.20% | 117 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +1d | +0.06% | 53% | 1.98% | 117 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) +7d | +0.26% | 54% | 6.44% | 117 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +1h | +0.05% | 52% | 0.77% | 109 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +4h | -0.10% | 48% | 1.61% | 109 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +1d | +0.17% | 52% | 2.52% | 109 |
| Ethereum (ETH) +7d | +0.82% | 55% | 8.51% | 109 |
| GBP/USD next noon NY fix | -0.03% | 47% | 0.45% | 117 |
| GBP/USD +7d | +0.03% | 50% | 0.99% | 117 |
Every past release
BTC/ETH: Bitstamp BTC/USD and ETH/USD price at the exact release minute vs +1h/+4h/+1d/+7d. "Reversed?" = the +4h move has the opposite sign to the +1h move. GBP/USD: first Federal Reserve H.10 noon New York fix after the release vs the last fix before it (for 8:30am ET US releases this is the same day's noon fix). Click a date for the official release.
| Release (UK time) | BTC +1h | BTC +4h | Reversed? | BTC +1d | BTC +7d | ETH +1h | ETH +4h | GBP/USD next noon NY fix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source ↗ | +0.01% | -1.64% | yes | -2.03% | -4.10% | +0.07% | -2.02% | +0.29% |
| Source ↗ | -2.50% | -2.21% | no | -2.05% | -5.25% | -3.14% | -2.95% | -0.11% |
| Source ↗ | +0.05% | -0.29% | yes | -0.22% | -3.47% | -0.25% | -0.92% | +0.31% |
| Source ↗ | +0.56% | -0.23% | yes | +1.00% | +2.41% | +1.06% | +1.50% | +0.63% |
| Source ↗ | -0.22% | -2.09% | no | -2.40% | +1.93% | +0.05% | -4.22% | -0.60% |
| Source ↗ | -0.89% | -0.47% | no | +0.11% | +0.26% | -0.84% | -0.14% | +0.10% |
| Source ↗ | -0.66% | -0.21% | no | -0.03% | +7.56% | -0.92% | -0.55% | -0.29% |
| Source ↗ | -1.52% | -2.59% | no | -2.94% | +4.24% | -1.91% | -3.67% | +0.59% |
| Source ↗ | +1.53% | -0.54% | yes | +1.14% | +0.71% | +2.03% | -0.86% | -0.07% |
| Source ↗ | -0.03% | +0.59% | yes | +0.11% | +5.53% | -0.08% | +0.42% | -0.13% |
| Source ↗ | -0.50% | -0.05% | no | -0.34% | +0.46% | -1.07% | -1.13% | +0.37% |
| Source ↗ | -0.51% | -5.23% | no | -9.26% | -1.22% | -0.31% | -6.51% | +0.02% |
| Source ↗ | +0.31% | -1.68% | yes | -1.61% | +2.25% | +0.34% | -3.63% | +0.76% |
| Source ↗ | +0.22% | +0.13% | no | -1.50% | +1.10% | +0.24% | -0.48% | +0.30% |
| Source ↗ | -0.22% | -0.40% | no | -0.70% | +1.21% | -0.31% | -1.13% | +0.24% |
| Source ↗ | +0.05% | +1.18% | no | +1.35% | +1.12% | +0.04% | +1.15% | -0.38% |
| Source ↗ | +0.19% | +0.86% | no | -0.79% | +6.49% | +0.09% | +1.35% | +0.08% |
| Source ↗ | +0.11% | +0.58% | no | +1.14% | -0.32% | +0.30% | +0.65% | -1.42% |
| Source ↗ | -0.31% | -2.33% | no | -3.45% | -6.80% | -0.26% | -1.64% | +0.19% |
| Source ↗ | +2.00% | -0.27% | yes | -1.58% | -1.20% | +1.77% | -2.37% | -0.31% |
| Source ↗ | -0.57% | -0.48% | no | -0.41% | +8.15% | -1.05% | -0.64% | -0.72% |
| Source ↗ | +1.31% | +1.44% | no | +1.50% | +2.06% | +1.79% | +4.63% | -0.08% |
| Source ↗ | +0.17% | +0.30% | no | -0.74% | +8.59% | +0.64% | +0.24% | +0.80% |
| Source ↗ | +0.02% | +0.70% | no | +1.11% | -0.51% | -0.17% | +1.99% | -0.05% |
| Source ↗ | +1.56% | -3.29% | yes | -2.58% | +3.22% | +1.12% | -3.97% | -0.22% |
| Source ↗ | +0.58% | -2.20% | yes | -3.66% | -6.28% | +0.12% | -4.06% | +0.20% |
| Source ↗ | -0.26% | +1.74% | yes | +1.90% | +3.26% | +0.45% | +0.86% | +0.32% |
| Source ↗ | -0.76% | -1.06% | no | -3.58% | -6.59% | -0.75% | -0.84% | -0.46% |
| Source ↗ | +3.49% | +4.76% | no | +8.08% | +6.91% | +2.37% | +3.71% | +0.34% |
| Source ↗ | +0.34% | +1.85% | no | +1.56% | +6.11% | +0.27% | +2.20% | -0.28% |
| Source ↗ | +0.78% | +1.29% | no | +1.58% | +0.35% | +0.46% | -0.36% | +0.44% |
| Source ↗ | -0.91% | +0.34% | yes | -0.06% | +10.00% | -1.08% | -0.44% | -0.79% |
| Source ↗ | -0.43% | -1.13% | no | -0.55% | +4.10% | -0.42% | -1.16% | +0.38% |
| Source ↗ | -0.20% | -0.10% | no | +0.38% | -2.93% | -0.44% | -0.53% | -0.34% |
| Source ↗ | +0.20% | +1.23% | no | +1.26% | +7.79% | +0.23% | +1.30% | +1.63% |
| Source ↗ | -1.01% | +0.73% | yes | +1.01% | -3.04% | -0.48% | +0.41% | +0.69% |
| Source ↗ | -0.15% | -0.67% | no | -0.94% | -0.80% | -0.26% | -0.83% | -0.58% |
| Source ↗ | +0.12% | +0.35% | no | -0.49% | +0.90% | +0.19% | +0.67% | +0.52% |
| Source ↗ | +0.57% | +0.78% | no | +0.31% | +3.63% | +0.61% | +0.78% | +0.92% |
| Source ↗ | -0.23% | -0.30% | no | +0.08% | -1.83% | -0.19% | -0.20% | -0.54% |
| Source ↗ | -0.59% | +1.26% | yes | +0.35% | -9.52% | +0.28% | +4.20% | +0.56% |
| Source ↗ | -0.18% | +0.05% | yes | +0.42% | +10.47% | -0.09% | +0.31% | -0.27% |
| Source ↗ | +0.47% | -0.11% | yes | +1.43% | +33.64% | +0.98% | +0.85% | +1.01% |
| Source ↗ | -0.83% | +0.30% | yes | +0.19% | -7.26% | -0.91% | +1.00% | -1.53% |
| Source ↗ | +0.39% | +0.78% | no | +1.39% | +13.09% | +1.14% | +2.24% | +1.36% |
| Source ↗ | -0.72% | -0.38% | no | -0.35% | +1.26% | -0.87% | -0.54% | +0.33% |
| Source ↗ | +1.73% | +1.51% | no | +3.93% | -15.99% | +2.94% | +3.04% | +0.86% |
| Source ↗ | -2.00% | -3.24% | no | -2.54% | -1.88% | -1.98% | -2.61% | -0.15% |
| Source ↗ | +1.22% | +0.64% | no | -1.42% | +4.62% | +2.74% | +1.70% | +0.36% |
| Source ↗ | -1.66% | -1.78% | no | -0.80% | +1.51% | -2.34% | -2.82% | -0.66% |
| Source ↗ | -1.16% | +0.28% | yes | -0.43% | -3.59% | -1.19% | -0.27% | +0.35% |
| Source ↗ | -0.69% | -1.07% | no | -0.59% | +1.04% | -1.00% | -0.89% | -0.49% |
| Source ↗ | -0.00% | +0.29% | yes | +0.05% | -14.89% | -0.15% | -0.07% | +0.08% |
| Source ↗ | +1.25% | +3.66% | no | +4.22% | -3.32% | +2.00% | +4.84% | -0.29% |
| Source ↗ | -0.45% | -1.59% | no | -6.02% | -4.53% | -0.93% | -1.66% | -0.84% |
| Source ↗ | -0.16% | +6.40% | yes | +9.41% | +15.45% | -0.65% | +4.14% | -0.43% |
| Source ↗ | -1.01% | -0.94% | no | -0.95% | +0.08% | -0.37% | -1.13% | +0.32% |
| Source ↗ | -0.40% | -3.68% | no | -17.19% | -14.15% | -0.54% | -6.21% | -0.53% |
| Source ↗ | +0.38% | -0.61% | yes | -1.28% | +4.40% | +0.74% | +0.15% | -0.02% |
| Source ↗ | +0.07% | -0.94% | yes | +0.61% | +8.45% | +0.64% | +0.76% | -0.03% |
| Source ↗ | +1.36% | +0.98% | no | +0.06% | -8.10% | -0.10% | +0.46% | +0.27% |
| Source ↗ | +0.00% | +3.94% | no | +8.30% | +13.26% | -0.15% | +3.04% | -0.40% |
| Source ↗ | +1.37% | +1.99% | no | +5.17% | -0.42% | +1.23% | +4.03% | +0.11% |
| Source ↗ | +2.87% | +3.18% | no | +0.36% | +4.00% | +3.73% | +4.19% | +0.54% |
| Source ↗ | +1.21% | +1.99% | no | +3.65% | -10.86% | +1.73% | +2.92% | +0.86% |
| Source ↗ | -0.15% | -0.07% | no | -0.16% | -1.56% | -0.17% | +3.16% | +0.00% |
| Source ↗ | +0.88% | -0.50% | yes | -1.94% | +14.84% | +0.93% | +0.06% | -1.30% |
| Source ↗ | +0.53% | -0.12% | yes | +6.08% | +26.18% | +2.60% | +2.80% | +0.36% |
| Source ↗ | -0.25% | -0.17% | no | -0.96% | -9.44% | +0.30% | -1.10% | +0.24% |
| Source ↗ | +0.79% | -0.02% | yes | +0.05% | -5.95% | +0.90% | -0.09% | -0.08% |
| Source ↗ | -0.26% | -0.17% | no | -0.52% | +4.64% | -0.43% | -0.19% | +0.35% |
| Source ↗ | -0.26% | +0.54% | yes | +0.44% | +5.47% | -0.59% | +1.71% | +0.21% |
| Source ↗ | +0.40% | +0.15% | no | -3.09% | -1.40% | +0.54% | -2.62% | -0.25% |
| Source ↗ | +0.26% | -0.88% | yes | +0.50% | +0.13% | +0.45% | -2.01% | -0.79% |
| Source ↗ | +0.59% | -1.58% | yes | -0.90% | +2.44% | +0.84% | -1.26% | -0.04% |
| Source ↗ | +0.09% | +0.35% | no | +0.46% | -2.00% | -0.16% | -0.38% | +0.75% |
| Source ↗ | -0.40% | +0.76% | yes | -2.70% | -3.92% | -0.09% | +0.85% | +0.70% |
| Source ↗ | -1.42% | -4.71% | no | -4.14% | -1.17% | -1.02% | -4.63% | -1.23% |
| Source ↗ | -0.06% | -0.17% | no | -0.05% | -36.64% | -0.00% | +0.23% | +0.55% |
| Source ↗ | +0.17% | +0.23% | no | +0.85% | +4.99% | +0.86% | +0.92% | -0.21% |
| Source ↗ | -0.14% | +0.26% | yes | +1.77% | +11.63% | -0.19% | +1.30% | -0.07% |
| Source ↗ | +0.08% | +0.48% | no | +1.91% | -2.20% | -0.14% | +0.40% | -0.29% |
| Source ↗ | -0.27% | -0.18% | no | +1.40% | -1.97% | -0.83% | -0.84% | +0.09% |
| Source ↗ | +0.02% | +0.31% | no | -0.79% | +2.31% | -0.02% | +1.03% | -0.65% |
| Source ↗ | -0.78% | -0.37% | no | -4.68% | -5.55% | -0.19% | -0.44% | -0.31% |
| Source ↗ | +0.20% | -0.06% | yes | +2.24% | +11.35% | +0.02% | -1.17% | -0.11% |
| Source ↗ | +0.47% | +0.81% | no | +2.00% | +4.53% | +0.32% | -0.48% | -0.49% |
| Source ↗ | +0.41% | +1.51% | no | +0.04% | +4.41% | +0.10% | +2.01% | +0.21% |
| Source ↗ | +0.38% | -0.15% | yes | -0.08% | +9.23% | +0.20% | -0.41% | +0.82% |
| Source ↗ | +0.89% | +0.19% | no | +0.24% | +1.51% | +2.21% | +0.10% | -0.47% |
| Source ↗ | +0.21% | +0.27% | no | +0.82% | +0.19% | +0.75% | +0.46% | -0.74% |
| Source ↗ | +0.17% | -0.10% | yes | +0.27% | -1.03% | -0.01% | -0.70% | -0.31% |
| Source ↗ | -0.03% | -0.35% | no | +1.24% | -3.80% | -0.07% | -1.47% | +0.85% |
| Source ↗ | +0.39% | -4.48% | yes | -0.68% | -3.63% | +1.51% | -3.54% | -0.22% |
| Source ↗ | +0.19% | +0.14% | no | -0.29% | +0.17% | +0.70% | +0.94% | -0.07% |
| Source ↗ | +0.06% | +0.04% | no | +0.25% | -4.91% | +0.14% | +0.19% | +0.67% |
| Source ↗ | +0.19% | +0.45% | no | -0.46% | +0.71% | -0.02% | -0.72% | +0.01% |
| Source ↗ | +0.26% | +1.69% | no | +0.17% | -11.89% | +0.62% | +0.84% | -0.11% |
| Source ↗ | -0.30% | -0.45% | no | -0.16% | -5.00% | -0.04% | -0.10% | +0.26% |
| Source ↗ | +0.52% | +0.72% | no | +3.28% | +2.24% | +0.05% | +0.57% | +0.52% |
| Source ↗ | -0.35% | -1.06% | no | +1.87% | -12.21% | +0.65% | -3.24% | -0.25% |
| Source ↗ | +0.36% | +0.64% | no | +4.65% | +23.63% | +0.20% | +0.70% | +0.69% |
| Source ↗ | +2.84% | -0.96% | yes | +4.50% | -4.31% | +2.58% | +0.90% | +0.28% |
| Source ↗ | +0.25% | +1.51% | no | +5.32% | -4.13% | -1.98% | -1.63% | -0.85% |
| Source ↗ | +0.33% | +2.03% | no | +2.44% | -12.31% | -0.81% | -4.14% | +0.17% |
| Source ↗ | +4.41% | +3.51% | no | +2.41% | +20.62% | +1.14% | +3.01% | -0.48% |
| Source ↗ | -0.58% | +0.29% | yes | -1.58% | -5.41% | +0.58% | +0.95% | -0.01% |
| Source ↗ | -0.87% | -0.62% | no | -1.79% | +27.20% | +0.00% | -0.18% | -0.53% |
| Source ↗ | +0.59% | +0.15% | no | -4.36% | -3.91% | +0.40% | -0.21% | +0.65% |
| Source ↗ | +0.31% | +0.94% | no | +11.15% | +23.86% | – | – | -0.82% |
| Source ↗ | -0.49% | -0.42% | no | -0.42% | -8.80% | – | – | -0.67% |
| Source ↗ | -0.39% | -0.45% | no | +3.36% | +15.74% | – | – | -0.07% |
| Source ↗ | +0.70% | -3.74% | yes | -1.11% | +13.84% | – | – | +0.31% |
| Source ↗ | +0.41% | +0.25% | no | +0.15% | -2.65% | – | – | -0.70% |
| Source ↗ | +8.57% | +7.26% | no | +1.60% | -1.70% | – | – | -0.07% |
| Source ↗ | +0.35% | +0.70% | no | +0.46% | -3.82% | – | – | -0.30% |
| Source ↗ | +0.54% | +2.67% | no | -2.68% | -9.73% | – | – | -0.81% |
BTC/ETH: Bitstamp price at the exact release minute; +5m to +4h use 5-minute candle opens, +24h and +1w use 1-minute opens; the path beyond +4h is interpolated from hourly candle opens. "× typical" compares the move with the average move over the same window starting at the same UTC hour on all days. GBP/USD: Federal Reserve H.10 noon New York fix. Click a release date for the official release.
FAQ
How does Bitcoin react to the US jobs report (NFP)?
Across 117 scheduled US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) releases since 2017 with Bitstamp data, BTC's median move in the first hour was +0.09% and the average absolute first-hour move was 0.71%, about 1.4× a typical hour at the same time of day. The first-hour direction had reversed by +4 hours in 31% of cases. BTC was higher one day later 53% of the time. Historical data only, not a forecast.
What time is it released in the UK?
BLS standard release time 08:30 ET (BLS release schedule). The most recent release was at Fri 02 Oct 2026 13:30 UK time.