Macro Reaction

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) · 117 releases since 2017

Bitcoin CPI Reaction: How BTC Moves After US CPI Releases

BTC typically moves 1.02% in the first hour after US Consumer Price Index (CPI), about 2.1× a normal hour, and that first move has reversed by +4h in 29% of releases.

Next release: · October 2026 data

The interactive explorer needs JavaScript. The full table of every release is below.

Average path after the release

average movemiddle 50% of releasesaverage size of move (either direction)filtered average, for comparisonmost recent releaseZoomed to the average line, so the spread band runs off the edges. Choose "Show full spread" to see all of it.

Distribution of moves

Each bar counts releases whose move fell in that range. Tails are grouped at the edges.

Every selected release

Click a row to chart that release · click a column to sort

At a glance

The US Consumer Price Index is the headline read on American inflation, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 8:30am New York time. A hot or cool print shifts expectations for Fed rates within seconds, which is why it is the most reliably volatile hour on the crypto calendar.

Releases tracked
117
2017-01-18 → 2026-10-14
BTC avg first-hour move
1.02%
2.1× a typical hour
First-hour move reversed by +4h
29%
BTC, n=117 · ETH 20%
BTC higher after 1 day
53%
median +0.13%

Summary

Asset / horizonMedian move% upAvg absolute moven
Bitcoin (BTC) +1h+0.08%55%1.02%117
Bitcoin (BTC) +4h+0.09%51%1.65%117
Bitcoin (BTC) +1d+0.13%53%3.08%117
Bitcoin (BTC) +7d+1.15%56%7.43%117
Ethereum (ETH) +1h+0.12%57%1.48%109
Ethereum (ETH) +4h+0.27%55%2.17%109
Ethereum (ETH) +1d+0.26%54%3.96%109
Ethereum (ETH) +7d+0.08%51%9.50%109
GBP/USD next noon NY fix+0.09%58%0.45%117
GBP/USD +7d+0.15%57%1.10%116

Every past release

BTC/ETH: Bitstamp BTC/USD and ETH/USD price at the exact release minute vs +1h/+4h/+1d/+7d. "Reversed?" = the +4h move has the opposite sign to the +1h move. GBP/USD: first Federal Reserve H.10 noon New York fix after the release vs the last fix before it (for 8:30am ET US releases this is the same day's noon fix). Click a date for the official release.

Release (UK time)BTC +1hBTC +4hReversed?BTC +1dBTC +7dETH +1hETH +4hGBP/USD next noon NY fix
Source ↗-1.46%-2.57%no-3.34%-0.32%-1.81%-3.34%-0.75%
Source ↗+0.55%+0.76%no+0.31%+1.14%+1.34%+3.95%-0.06%
Source ↗-0.72%-1.35%no-1.33%+0.13%-0.77%-1.45%-0.04%
Source ↗+1.58%+2.98%no+2.76%+5.61%+4.37%+4.13%+0.01%
Source ↗+0.63%+1.82%no+2.45%+5.76%+0.73%+1.44%+0.02%
Source ↗-0.20%-0.66%no-0.58%-4.97%-0.31%-1.05%-0.90%
Source ↗+0.15%+0.83%no+0.97%+4.98%+0.15%+1.12%+0.13%
Source ↗+1.16%+1.51%no+1.48%+4.89%+0.99%+1.49%-0.45%
Source ↗-0.04%+2.43%yes+2.91%-0.15%+0.38%+4.56%+0.09%
Source ↗+0.31%+1.45%no+3.38%-1.35%+0.44%+1.40%-0.22%
Source ↗+0.99%-2.09%yes+0.43%-0.19%+2.43%-2.37%-0.01%
Source ↗+0.22%-0.57%yes+0.62%-0.79%+0.28%-1.76%-0.19%
Source ↗-0.59%-0.02%no+0.64%+2.52%-1.47%-1.35%+0.15%
Source ↗+0.61%+1.05%no+1.74%-2.47%+2.69%+3.52%+0.71%
Source ↗+0.61%-0.03%yes+1.75%+2.07%+1.62%+2.05%-0.31%
Source ↗+0.48%+0.33%no-2.11%-4.16%+1.45%+3.22%+0.36%
Source ↗+0.24%+0.57%no+0.42%+1.24%+1.71%+3.46%+0.65%
Source ↗-0.46%-3.94%no+0.21%+3.42%-1.97%-7.94%+1.32%
Source ↗-0.06%-1.83%no-0.09%+0.37%-0.86%-3.03%+0.17%
Source ↗-1.88%+1.09%yes-0.63%-0.28%-3.53%+0.67%+0.17%
Source ↗+1.57%+1.92%no+1.59%+7.84%+2.18%+4.16%+0.21%
Source ↗+0.32%+2.24%no+2.92%+6.72%+0.01%+1.77%+0.04%
Source ↗+1.73%+4.46%no+2.89%+6.72%+1.65%+2.97%-0.19%
Source ↗-0.20%-1.16%no+0.06%+9.43%-0.77%-0.14%-0.21%
Source ↗-0.00%+0.08%yes+2.25%+5.29%-0.05%+0.27%-0.29%
Source ↗-1.48%-4.36%no-4.91%-3.69%-2.01%-4.58%+0.16%
Source ↗+0.16%-1.80%yes-2.14%+10.37%+0.98%-0.60%+0.61%
Source ↗+1.77%+1.98%no-0.25%-4.27%+1.82%+1.48%+0.93%
Source ↗+2.59%+3.46%no+5.91%+11.73%+2.36%+2.42%+0.56%
Source ↗-1.86%-0.04%no+1.51%-9.44%-2.46%-0.94%-1.04%
Source ↗+0.84%-1.58%yes+1.92%-11.96%+1.04%-1.73%-0.16%
Source ↗-1.68%-2.37%no+3.84%+5.05%-1.72%-2.12%-0.20%
Source ↗+1.49%-2.97%yes-3.08%-10.25%-0.48%-2.41%-0.14%
Source ↗-0.30%-2.32%no-1.19%+2.63%-0.14%-2.04%-0.01%
Source ↗+0.51%-0.35%yes-0.94%+2.07%+0.56%+0.19%+1.75%
Source ↗-0.18%-0.37%no+0.13%+6.06%+0.03%-0.70%-0.73%
Source ↗-0.35%+0.69%yes+0.79%+3.39%-0.39%+0.78%+0.09%
Source ↗+0.08%-0.45%yes-0.40%-3.54%+0.12%-0.15%+0.09%
Source ↗-0.48%-1.14%no-0.94%-2.89%-0.21%-0.47%+0.71%
Source ↗-0.42%-1.67%no-0.91%+2.31%-0.67%-1.25%+0.98%
Source ↗+1.45%+2.11%no-0.57%-3.76%+1.25%+1.57%-0.03%
Source ↗+0.57%+0.00%yes+0.62%-2.59%+0.98%+2.25%+0.50%
Source ↗+5.03%+4.54%no+0.12%+13.27%+3.54%+4.42%-0.12%
Source ↗-1.04%+0.96%yes+4.26%+12.83%-1.02%+1.86%+0.17%
Source ↗-0.12%+0.44%yes+3.85%+14.29%+1.56%+2.21%+0.47%
Source ↗+1.65%+0.62%no+1.67%-4.56%+2.77%+1.19%+0.73%
Source ↗+6.67%+7.57%no+5.84%+0.17%+8.82%+9.94%+2.47%
Source ↗-2.72%+0.78%yes+4.44%+2.30%-3.54%+0.14%+2.24%
Source ↗-5.96%-8.77%no-11.04%-16.11%-8.12%-9.23%-1.50%
Source ↗+4.56%+4.10%no+6.70%+2.25%+7.75%+7.52%+1.29%
Source ↗-5.17%-3.40%no-1.62%+18.42%-7.08%-3.40%+0.12%
Source ↗-2.23%-3.77%no-4.40%-30.51%-3.12%-6.12%-1.45%
Source ↗-5.39%-3.07%no-11.81%-5.34%-6.82%-7.15%+0.03%
Source ↗+0.59%-0.67%yes-1.53%+1.47%+1.23%-0.19%-0.02%
Source ↗-0.56%-0.25%no+0.82%+4.13%-0.65%-0.18%-0.40%
Source ↗-3.06%+1.77%yes-2.65%-5.25%-4.19%-0.53%+0.71%
Source ↗+1.01%+0.70%no+0.71%-2.65%+1.54%+1.77%+0.56%
Source ↗+1.21%-3.12%yes-0.85%-3.53%+0.74%-5.02%+0.56%
Source ↗+2.97%+3.30%no-2.10%-9.12%+2.49%+2.87%-0.60%
Source ↗+0.05%+2.22%no+4.82%+16.51%+0.04%+0.71%+0.29%
Source ↗+1.80%+2.00%no+3.99%-5.45%+1.66%+2.57%+0.03%
Source ↗+0.98%+1.05%no-3.25%-2.13%+0.87%+1.00%+0.19%
Source ↗-0.95%-0.29%no-1.56%-9.90%-0.63%+0.28%-0.28%
Source ↗+0.38%-1.88%yes-0.55%+3.47%-0.10%-2.22%+0.29%
Source ↗-1.30%-2.76%no-11.31%-32.54%-1.19%-3.86%-0.48%
Source ↗-0.63%+0.40%yes+1.84%-11.38%+0.10%+2.80%+0.01%
Source ↗+0.68%+2.47%no+1.82%-0.62%+0.15%+1.88%+0.11%
Source ↗-0.40%-1.68%no+5.48%+11.26%-0.18%-0.04%+0.39%
Source ↗+1.06%+0.99%no+11.89%-0.03%+1.47%+1.15%-0.04%
Source ↗-0.32%-0.17%no-1.41%+27.99%+0.19%+0.71%-0.74%
Source ↗+0.25%+1.19%no+1.98%+12.61%-0.10%-0.49%-0.70%
Source ↗-0.48%-0.81%no-0.75%+3.38%-0.76%-1.25%-0.27%
Source ↗+0.36%+0.70%no+0.59%+6.85%+0.80%+2.14%-0.45%
Source ↗+0.04%+0.77%no+0.09%+3.14%+0.30%+0.48%-0.23%
Source ↗-0.18%-0.03%no+0.13%+1.88%-0.29%-0.20%-0.54%
Source ↗+0.18%+0.21%no+0.28%-2.66%+0.15%+0.09%+0.17%
Source ↗-0.07%+2.09%yes+3.06%+10.46%+0.14%+0.82%-0.25%
Source ↗-0.29%-1.07%no-0.57%+2.50%-0.48%-1.95%+0.22%
Source ↗+0.44%-1.11%yes-22.66%-34.83%+0.68%-2.57%-0.36%
Source ↗-0.04%-1.19%no-0.38%-7.11%-0.06%-2.17%+0.56%
Source ↗+1.74%+2.18%no+2.84%+1.15%+2.20%+5.56%+0.27%
Source ↗+0.16%-0.50%yes-0.35%-9.75%-0.13%-1.75%-0.02%
Source ↗+0.39%+0.57%no-1.20%-7.48%+0.47%+1.55%-0.12%
Source ↗-0.58%+0.44%yes-2.15%-5.79%+0.12%+1.86%+1.37%
Source ↗+0.46%+0.66%no+1.16%-3.22%+0.49%+0.41%+0.23%
Source ↗-0.88%-2.97%no-5.67%-5.17%-0.88%-2.34%-0.02%
Source ↗-0.37%-0.24%no-0.42%-18.91%-0.58%+0.13%+0.34%
Source ↗-0.18%+2.38%yes+1.42%+13.61%-0.45%+3.57%-0.24%
Source ↗+0.42%+1.40%no+8.24%+11.39%+0.10%+0.30%+0.18%
Source ↗+0.32%+0.33%no-4.22%-0.92%+0.45%-0.34%+0.40%
Source ↗+0.01%-0.34%yes-0.67%+2.63%-0.14%-0.78%+0.05%
Source ↗-0.26%-0.20%no-0.57%+9.69%-0.97%-1.16%-0.17%
Source ↗+0.36%+0.48%no-0.36%-0.70%+2.40%+3.14%+0.53%
Source ↗+0.30%+0.91%no-0.11%+14.06%+0.61%+1.28%+1.07%
Source ↗-0.20%-9.45%no-12.66%-26.92%-0.24%-8.77%-0.15%
Source ↗+0.17%+0.15%no+0.32%+3.98%+0.03%+0.95%-0.10%
Source ↗-0.01%+0.67%yes-0.03%-0.65%+2.67%+4.49%+0.58%
Source ↗+0.13%-0.67%yes-6.04%+0.16%-0.47%-0.96%-0.78%
Source ↗-0.13%-0.12%no+1.02%+19.94%-0.51%+0.10%-0.02%
Source ↗-1.32%-1.04%no-5.35%-1.41%-1.45%-1.46%+0.22%
Source ↗+0.47%+0.20%no-8.46%-10.94%+0.99%+0.49%-0.59%
Source ↗+1.11%+1.12%no+12.66%+18.12%+1.60%+1.67%+0.23%
Source ↗+1.99%+0.19%no-3.63%-5.68%+0.80%-0.80%+0.64%
Source ↗-0.63%+0.30%yes+4.72%+17.93%-1.11%+1.67%+0.45%
Source ↗-1.13%-2.60%no+3.00%-15.05%-1.22%-2.85%+1.08%
Source ↗+0.02%-3.85%yes-2.47%+3.08%+4.53%+0.30%+0.32%
Source ↗+1.41%+0.52%no+4.19%+15.40%+0.28%-1.42%+0.28%
Source ↗+0.68%+1.54%no+1.83%+1.01%+4.03%+1.01%+0.99%
Source ↗-4.11%-3.73%no-11.58%+5.52%-4.37%-4.00%+1.36%
Source ↗+0.09%+0.09%no+6.27%+22.82%––+0.08%
Source ↗-0.96%-3.97%no-12.00%+19.22%––+1.22%
Source ↗-1.11%-6.20%no-13.94%+0.06%––+0.54%
Source ↗+0.08%-2.27%yes-2.61%+8.18%––-0.04%
Source ↗+0.80%+1.49%no+1.99%+7.89%––+0.07%
Source ↗+0.05%-0.34%yes-2.26%-15.60%––+0.44%
Source ↗-0.02%-0.39%no+1.15%+11.04%––+0.00%
Source ↗-1.96%+0.42%yes+2.45%+2.13%––-0.64%

BTC/ETH: Bitstamp price at the exact release minute; +5m to +4h use 5-minute candle opens, +24h and +1w use 1-minute opens; the path beyond +4h is interpolated from hourly candle opens. "× typical" compares the move with the average move over the same window starting at the same UTC hour on all days. GBP/USD: Federal Reserve H.10 noon New York fix. Click a release date for the official release.

FAQ

How does Bitcoin react to US CPI?

Across 117 scheduled US Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases since 2017 with Bitstamp data, BTC's median move in the first hour was +0.08% and the average absolute first-hour move was 1.02%, about 2.1× a typical hour at the same time of day. The first-hour direction had reversed by +4 hours in 29% of cases. BTC was higher one day later 53% of the time. Historical data only, not a forecast.

What time is it released in the UK?

BLS standard release time 08:30 ET (BLS release schedule). The most recent release was at Wed 14 Oct 2026 13:30 UK time.